The collapse of «colour revolutions» was inevitable

PanARMENIAN.Net - Administration of the leaving President of the USA put an end to the excessive ambitions of Mikhail Saakashvili, and what will Barack Obama do is still a question. Most likely he will be busy handling the financial crisis, and will, evidently, not be in the right mood for dealing either with Georgia or with the Ukraine. The reason for this can hardly lie in the August war that broke out so untimely and ended so sadly for Georgia. Actually, there was no other way out. Russia can be enraged to a certain degree, but, unfortunately, the President of Georgia neither realized it nor listened to the warnings from Washington. However, we dare hope that even without the ill-fated war the «rose» coalition would anyway cease to exist. Direct accusations from ex-speaker Nino Burjanadze, and earlier the trial against Minister of Defense Irakli Okruashvili compelled Tbilisi to reconsider its strategy. And if we also take into consideration the statement of ex-ambassador of Georgia to Moscow Eros Kitsmarishvili, who noted that it was Georgia that launched the August war, it immediately becomes clear that too little time is left till the end of Saakashvili's power. It may last for some more time, say till April 2009, but then opposition will once again overturn Georgia. It was not done with the hope that George Bush would not let down the «obedient child» and the «leading light of democracy». Simply once more Tbilisi forgot that the United States has always pursued and will pursue its own interests. Roughly speaking, Georgia was «surrendered» in order not to finally break off relations with Russia. By the way, initiators of the «surrender» were rather Europeans than the Americans. Just it so happened that the interests of the EU and those of the USA matched.

French and German officials were especially uncertain if NATO would be able to protect Georgia, and they worried much over the reckless actions of President Saakashvili. But on the other hand neither the USA nor Europe wants to give the impression that the outcome of the quarrel over the Membership Action Plan (MAP) is highly influenced by resistance from Moscow.

Things are neither enjoyable in the Ukraine, where the «Rose Revolution» has simply stalled. Only 5.4% of the population backs up Victor Yushchenko now. According to western press reports, "With reforms not made and promises not kept, the vast majority of Ukrainians say their country is headed in the wrong direction. An economic emergency can focus thinking and perhaps turn squabbling politicians into responsible adults who put Ukraine's potential ahead of their own". Having 1/4 of the most fruitful lands in the world, Ukraine could have become an agricultural giant, if it had developed laws on land. Being a biggest market on a Black Sea coast and having a population of 46 million people, she could have attracted more international investments if law leadership had been established here. However, Ukraine failed. Like every economy in the world Ukraine had an access to low credits, thanks to which Kiev became an outstanding gigantic city, where the cost of living is much higher than in any other west-European capital. But now when credits have exhausted the Government had to turn to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a gigantic loan of $16.5 billion.

The collapse of «colour revolutions» on the post-Soviet territory is quite natural and it was simply inevitable. The stake on democracy and free market, of which George Bush spoke with great enthusiasm, proved to be premature.