"Eastern Partnership" has been adopted to keep the balance of power that was upset on the post-Soviet territory

PanARMENIAN.Net - After August 2008 developments in the Caucasus, as well as in the whole world sped up, and "Eastern Partnership" was adopted to keep the balance of power upset on the post-Soviet territory. In our opinion, with this move the EU first of all aims to cut down Russia's influence and power in the region, as well as to have a more unyielding position in talks with Moscow. After the latest NATO summit in Brussels, when Georgia and Ukraine were refused into Membership Action Plan (MAP), stance of the West in the region may become more vulnerable. Unlike Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as Moldova and Belarus have not yet determined their position in priorities: whether to choose the European way or to finally head for Russia. On the whole, in either case the post-Soviet countries are subject to obedience, and it is still a question which Big Brother would be better to choose. In fact, in such cases the notion of good or bad is generally replaced by the concept of «expediency», and there is no choice as such. Neither are there clear perspectives as to the outcome of partnership with the EU or Russia.

The draft communique proposes holding an "Eastern Partnership Summit" in June 2009 to launch the project. Follow-up meetings of EU and Eastern Partnership foreign ministers are to take place each Spring, while "Senior officials" from the "27 + 5(6)" countries are to meet twice yearly to prepare for the ministerials. The European Partnership is to raise the EU's per capita spending in the region twice by 2013 and 3.3 times by 2020. The shift will cost Ђ2.1 billion, atop the lost income of Ђ75 million per year as a result of waiving EU visa costs. Under the EU's "Eastern Partnership" initiative, talks would be conducted on creating visa free travel in the long-term, the six countries - Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine - would be eligible for comprehensive free trade agreements, and EU-funded educational, environmental and energy supply exchange programmes would be organized.

According to The Financial Times, the plan's primary purpose is to raise the EU's profile and reinforce political and economic stability in the area between the 27-nation bloc and Russia - a region that Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian president, laid claim to as a "privileged" sphere of influence after the fighting in Georgia.

In the words of Karen Bekaryan, Head of the "European Integration" NGO, changing the format of relations between the EU and the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) states was dictated by time and by the problems that the ENP faced in the process of its realization. "As to the benefit Armenia can derive from the Eastern Partnership, it's apparent. New programs will be launched, economic cooperation will expand; Armenia will be rendered assistance in implementation of reforms it needs so much," Bekaryan noted.

However, Azerbaijan has a different view on the matter. According to Azeri political analyst Zardusht Alizade, democracy ideals are alien to the current Azerbaijani leadership, that is why instead of getting down to work, it will take to imitation. "Some laws will definitely be amended, but, most apparently, they will not work. Any measures suggested under the program "Eastern Partnership" and aimed at creation of active civil society in Azerbaijan will be met with bitter hostility by the authorities. The latter have no state, and, accordingly, they see no point for Azerbaijan to integrate into the EU," Alizade believes. And, basically, he is right. Official Baku greatly fears democracy, which will not tolerate intimidating the public and making a fool of them. As for EU membership, Azerbaijan, like Armenia, is still too far from it. But unlike Armenia that either by word of mouth or in practice does not yearn for integration into the European Union, as it can see by Turkey's example how difficult it is, Azerbaijan for some reason is sure that sooner or later it will become a EU member and for the sake of oil which, by the way, will soon be over Brussels should turn a blind eye to complete absence of democracy in the country. Though, if the pipelines continue functioning, violation of human rights can be treated quietly, but it's a long way in the future and Turkey's example is again educational. No matter how hard Ankara tried, Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan did not serve as a permit to Europe in spite of the fact that certain reforms are being carried out in Turkey - though slowly, unwillingly, something is being done anyway. Baku lacks even slow development, which cannot be said about Armenia. And, as we have mentioned more than once, it may even happen so, that with successful course of events and with a change of balance in the region, Armenia should become a EU member sooner than Turkey. And in that case "Eastern Partnership" might serve as an additional stimulus for Armenia to refuse care from Moscow.