Silence is deceptive, the region is in anticipation

PanARMENIAN.Net - But this time Azerbaijan will not have a chance to take a step, fraught with not only tensions but also war. Ankara will be the first to prevent it, as she, at long last, was able to work off the promises so "prudently" given to Baku in exchange for the pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan to pass through the territory of Turkey. Yet, in the end, the pipeline did not yield the profit the Turkish leadership hoped. But the point is not only the pipelines in use: no projects will be considered in the region until the Armenian-Turkish Protocols are signed. Somehow the world stopped talking of Nabucco, the main project for Europe and Turkey. The problem of the Caspian Sea and even Iran's nuclear program are mow less spoken about. Though the President of Turkmenistan spoke of the Caspian Sea once again on October 1, most probably it was a battle reconnaissance and a desire to sound out the possibilities for further steps. All the main players, i.e. the United States and Russia are waiting for October 10. Even the expected meeting between the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Chisinau is perceived as a kind of tribute to the achieved agreement, which is simply impossible to undo. No one mentions that it is going to be totally unproductive and even unnecessary, because it is clear as it is. It is also clear that after October 15 there will begin changes in the region that will first have an impact on Azerbaijan and Georgia, and only after that on Armenia and Turkey. Moreover, the reaction will go increasingly: opening of the Armenian-Turkish border in the next two months and possible but still not exact opening of diplomatic offices in Yerevan and Ankara. What will happen next is unknown. Neither is it known how these changes will affect the region in regulating the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. No matter how hard the diplomats try to assure that the Armenian-Turkish relations have nothing to do with Karabakh, in fact, everything is the other way round. Turkey, having some obligations to Armenia, though they are not very clear, cannot openly play on Azerbaijan's side. Neither can she integrate into the Minsk Group as no one would give her that right. Moreover, if there is anyone in Turkey believing that normalization of relations with Armenia would open a door to the EU, they are either naive or they are creating illusions for themselves. One of the first statements of re-elected Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel was: "Germany shares the observation of France on the opportunity of Turkey to join the EU".

Europe's interests in Turkey go no further than viewing it as a transit country for Nabucco, especially since the main problem for smooth operation of any pipeline, i.e. the Kurdish problem, is not solved. Armenia, of course, poses no threat to the security of Nabucco, which cannot be said about the Kurdistan Workers' Party, best known as PKK. It is now more important for Europe to normalize relations with Iran, with which negotiations "5 +1" begin next week. Meetings with high-ranking U.S. and Iranian diplomats too have resumed on a "neutral" territory. The first meeting was in Baghdad, others are expected in Qatar or Kuwait. In the words of Zbigniew Brzezinski, there begins the "biggest game" in the region - the struggle for supremacy - which involves not only the entire Middle East but also the Central Asian countries and Afghanistan. Who the next regional leader will follow - Russia or the United States? This is the question for the "biggest game".

What can Armenia gain from all this? Only a way out of isolation and economic dividends or a real hope to become a fully competent South Caucasus country with all the attendant consequences, the most important among them being the consolidation of the current status of Nagorno-Karabakh? Perhaps in defiance of Azerbaijan, Armenia will receive some benefits as a transit country. But it will occur only if Iran joins energy projects, which so far seems rather unreal. However.... never say never, because five years ago nobody could predict that events would take such a turn and would develop so quickly. The drawback is that universal questions, such as recognition of the Armenian Genocide may move to the background, which is very bad for the Armenian people as a whole. But everything here depends on the flexibility of the Armenian diplomacy and its ability to have its own way, which we have discussed repeatedly.