Normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations will not solve internal political problems of Armenia

PanARMENIAN.Net - The Monday of November 30 began with a press conference of the Secretary of the Parliamentary Faction of the Republican Party of Armenia Eduard Sharmazanov, who rather confidently assumed that the Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs of the Turkish Parliament would make a positive conclusion and Armenian-Turkish Protocols would be included in the agenda of the Turkish Parliament. He grounded his point of view with the assumption that the negative decision of the Turkish Parliamentary Commission could lead to disruption of the meeting between Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan and U.S. President Barack Obama, scheduled for December 7.

Sharmazanov reiterated Armenia's readiness to normalize relations with Turkey without preconditions and on equal terms. He noted that Armenia does not undertake any unilateral obligations, and in case of any delay in this process from the Turkish side, the RA leadership will take appropriate measures within the framework of international law.

Touching upon the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement, Sharmazanov noted that it is still too early to speak of real and tangible changes, and progress can observed only in the maintenance of bilateral meetings between Armenia and Azerbaijan. He referred to the upcoming meeting between the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan, due in Athens.

The rest of the statements made on Monday referred to the past 12th congress of the Republican Party. Analyzing the political situation in Armenia since the beginning of normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations, Heritage faction leader Stepan Safaryan ruled out a possibility of coalition split. According to Safaryan, however, the Republican Party's 12th session eliminated such fears and strengthened the stance of the Republican Party. Safaryan also expressed doubt that unlike the Armenian authorities, the opposition would be unable to present a united front.

Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan was critically addressed to by Armenian liberals. In their view, at the 12th RPA congress President Serzh Sargsyan's speech was full of ungrounded optimism and contained no development program to be undertaken by the Party. This view was expressed by Armenian Liberal Party (LPA) Leader Hovhannes Hovhannesyan. According to Hovhannesyan, the President's statement on Armenia's having overcome the internal political crisis was untrue, since Armenian government's economic policy brought the county to a deadlock, with 18.6% economic downturn registered. The LPA Leader believes, at 12th RPA congress the RA Premier should have faced a vote of non-confidence, instead of being elected an executive member of the Party. He also criticized the lending policy of the Government of Armenia, stressing that the external debt of the country has reached 36% of GDP, a figure, difficult to be covered in future. Hovhannes Hovhannesyan also touched upon the political component derived from European credits. We must understand that European credits are provided to Armenia in exchange for resolution of political issues like Armenia-Turkey rapprochement and NKR conflict settlement," LPA leader emphasized.

At the press conference, MP of the parliamentary faction of RPA Mkrtich Minasyan disagreed with this interpretation of the country's lending policy. He noted that credits are provided to those states which are believed capable of returning them. He also said that part of the credits received will be allocated to the implementation of 2010 social programs and in assistance to small & medium businesses.

On Monday, also Director of the U.S. Department of State Office of Caucasus Affairs and Regional Conflicts Ethan Goldrich visited ARF-Dashnaktsutyun's Christopher Mikayelyan Center in Yerevan to meet with the representatives of ARFD Supreme Council. Armenian-Turkish rapprochement and Karabakh conflict settlement were in the focus of discussions. Parties agreed that normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations without preconditions was a key issue for the establishment of ongoing peace and stability in the region. They also stressed the importance of international community not to neglect the bellicose statements of Baku.

On Tuesday of December 1, 14 parties including the ARFD, the Democratic Party of Armenia, the Heritage party, the Ramkavar Azatakan Party of Armenia and over 60 social organizations, called on the RA Constitutional Court to recognize the protocols inconsistent with the RA Constitution. At the meeting the political parties and civil society organizations opposed to the ratification of the Armenian-Turkish Protocols. Head of ARF faction Mr. Vahan Hovhannisyan recalled that about 70% of the Armenian population is against these protocols. Moreover, 56% were totally against establishing any relations with Turkey. Vahan Hovhannisyan noted that the Armenian authorities deviated from "the right path" and that the ARF would try to get them back, and in case it failed, the faction promised "to overthrow the government."

On the same day, Former Advisor to Armenia's second President Robert Kocharyan, Colonel General Gurgen Dalibaltayan and Major General Arkady Ter-Tadevosyan (Commandos) sent an open letter to RA President Serzh Sargsyan with the request to release Artsakh war hero Sasun Mikayelyan. "Irrespective of the reasons of imprisonment, the matter concerns the health of the person who made a huge contribution to the liberation of Artsakh," the letter said in particular.

Another significant event of the day, which, however, received no adequate public response, was the Congratulation of the "Heritage" Party addressed to Armenians all over the world on the 20th anniversary of ASSR Supreme Council's decision on uniting the Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Region with Armenia.

On Wednesday of December 2, assessments of experts and politicians on the Athens meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan began to increase. "The OSCE Foreign Ministers' December 1 statement in Athens definitely testifies positive dynamics in Karabakh peace talks," declared Member of the Republican Party of Armenia Gagik Melikyan at a joint press conference with former NKR Foreign Minister Arman Melikyan. According to MP of the parliamentary faction of the Republican Party Gagik Melikyan, "The fact that the Azerbaijani side accepts the right of nations to self-determination and Armenian President's proposal on package settlement can be viewed as progress." Arman Melikyan noted for his part that the current negotiation format might result in clash between the principle of territorial integrity and the right of nations to self-determination. "While Armenia presses for international recognition of NKR people's right to self-determination, Azerbaijan seeks for ways to return the liberated territories and Nagorno Karabakh," the diplomat stressed. At that, he added that current negotiation format may lead to resumption of hostilities. "To influence Baku, Armenia should withdraw from the Treaty of Kars and raise the Nakhichevan issue," Arman Melikyan noted adding that withdrawal from the agreement and ratification of the Protocols would allow Armenia to turn over a new leaf in relations with Turkey. Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, referring to the declared principle of disconnection between the Karabakh conflict and normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations, noted that though there's no formal link between the Protocols and the NKR conflict settlement, a proceduralrelation yet exists.

More optimistic was the statement of Professor Ruben Safrastyan, Director of the RA NAS Institute of Oriental Studies. The latter thinks that Ankara's discrepant statements can't urge Armenia on concessions. Safrastyan believes "A framework agreement on Karabakh will be signed when the parties of the Karabakh conflict agree on the key issues." "An attempt to resolve this problem would more likely aggravate the situation, which is favorable to neither of the sides," Safrastyan declared.

Aram Safaryan, Secretary of the faction "Prosperous Armenia" spoke of the readiness of Armenia to ensure the NKR security He recalled the commitment of the coalition government of Armenia to continue negotiations on the search of a peaceful regulation and the willingness of the Armenian authorities to ensure the security of Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh, by providing all the necessary resources.

An interesting viewpoint on the behavior of Turkey was expressed on Thursday, December 3, by the Director of the Armenian Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS) Richard Giragosian. In his view, Turkey tests Armenia, trying to grope the strengths and weaknesses of Yerevan. According to him, "The main test will come after the New Year. The key point is what price Armenia is ready to pay for the open border with Turkey and for restored diplomatic relations." As the ACNIS Director emphasized, Armenia will have to reconsider its position on normalization of ties without preconditions, should Ankara block the process. Still, the rapprochement will not resolve internal political problems in Armenia, he stated.

A different interesting and rational proposal was made by "Heritage" faction MP Stepan Safaryan, who finds that cooperation with NATO will enable Armenia to diversify its security resources and extend its cooperation frameworks beyond Russia. "This was what Azerbaijan did in 2008, signing an agreement with Russia on strategic cooperation and partnership. From the standpoint of Azerbaijan, in the event of renewed hostilities, it would prevent Russia from offering explicit support to Armenia," noted the Armenian MP.

On the same day the Armenian government approved a draft law proposed by MP of the ARFD Armen Rustamyan, which suggested the parliament to adopt "A statement on Azerbaijan's Responsibility for transformation the Karabakh problem resolution into military confrontation."

On the following day, December 4, another initiative was exercised by the Ramkavar Azatakan Party, which appealed to the Government of Armenia with a proposal to submit all regional conflicts to the International Court of Justice for the latter's consideration, in case the countries violating regional stability do not change their policy in the near future.

The week was completed with UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Dr. Mohammed Anwar Gargash arriving in Armenia on December 5 to meet Foreign Minister of Armenia Edward Nalbandian. It was declared at a joint press conference that Armenia and UAE share similar positions on many issues, including the Karabakh conflict and the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement. "In the talks with the Armenian side, I have expressed our support to the settlement of Armenian-Turkish relations. We know this is a rather complicated process having a historical background, but we wish good luck to your efforts in this issue," stated Anwar Gargash, UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs.