Alterations in RA internal policy observed in view of diminishing urgency of Armenia-Turkey rapprochement process

May 3-7 internal political events overview

Azerbaijan is incapable to resolve Karabakh conflict, an Armenian expert said.

PanARMENIAN.Net - Instead of parrying Azerbaijan’s bellicose statements, Armenia should threaten itself, Levon Shirinyan said during a joint news conference with Turkologist Artak Shakaryan on May 3.

“Return of any liberated region would be equal to treason,” he said.

Meanwhile, Artak Shakaryan didn’t support the suggestion to issue threats. “Armenia has an image of a country standing for peaceful resolution of conflicts. This distinguishes it from Turkey and Azerbaijan. Militant statements can damage our strategic plans,” he said.

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Political analyst Levon Shirinyan said that the statement by Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu that the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border is not sufficient for Turkey proves that it wants to govern processes in the region. Turkey persistently wants to be involved in regional processes and govern them, Shirinyan said during a joint press conference with Turkologist Artak Shakaryan in Yerevan.

In his turn, Shakaryan noted that the statement of the Turkish Foreign Minister is not new; it is just a reformulation of previous statements. "In Turkey's opinion, the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border is senseless without the opening of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border," the Armenian expert said, adding that it does not matter for Turkey which border is opened first, it is important that the processes develop and complete relatively simultaneously. "The Armenian-Turkish relations will not reach a high level unless Ankara changes its stance and the issue of the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations is settled," Shakaryan stressed.

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A meeting of the Public Council took place in Armenia on May 3, during which the Armenian-Turkish relations and further steps were discussed. Chairman of the Public Council Vazgen Manukyan stated at the meeting that a better result could not be achieved in the Armenian-Turkish process. "Armenia's involvement in the Armenian-Turkish normalization was more important at this stage, than the border's opening, as the Armenian-Turkish process has united all Armenians and facilitated the Armenian Genocide international recognition," Manukyan noted. In his opinion, though the Armenian-Turkish Protocols contain a provision on mutual recognition of the borders, the document could not be better.

Manukyan stressed that now the Karabakh problem is a priority.

According to Manukyan, one should not expect Turkey to recognize the Genocide. "I consider this stage to be positive, while the continuation will strengthen our possibilities," said Manukyan, the press service of the RA Public Council reported.

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The Armenian-Turkish dialogue takes pause, according to Turkologist Ruben Melkonyan.

“The process on normalization of relations has hit a deadlock, mostly because of the upcoming parliamentary elections in Turkey,” Melkonyan told a PanARMENIAN.Net reporter on May 4.

As to ratification of Protocols, he noted that these have not been removed from the agenda, as neither Armenia nor Turkey withdraw signatures. “Should both countries demonstrate political will, the Protocols can give a start to a new process. It’s not ruled out that they will be amended,” Melkonyan said.

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Secretary of the Republican Party of Armenia parliamentary group Eduard Sharmazanov said that drastic changes in the Karabakh conflict settlement process are possible only if Azerbaijan recognizes independence of Nagorno Karabakh.

“However, progress is unlikely as long as Azerbaijan keeps up warlike rhetoric,” Mr. Sharmazanov told a PanARMENIAN.Net reporter.

As for the possibility of resumption of hostilities by Azerbaijan, he noted that Azerbaijan will not dare plunge into military adventure, due to its previous "bitter experience."

“Launching new aggression against Karabakh will be fatal for Azerbaijan," Mr.Sharmazanov said, adding that Armenia stands for peaceful resolution of the conflict but is not afraid of a war.

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Azerbaijan must get rid of its medieval mentality, according to Deputy Foreign Minister of Armenia Shavarsh Kocharyan.

As he said commenting on recent statement by his Azeri counterpart Araz Azimov, “As soon as Azerbaijan is ready to return occupied Nagorno Karabakh regions and recognize NKR independence, Baku can ask NKR for talks.”

“Co-Chairs suggest returning 5 occupied territories of Azerbaijan and Lachin corridor, followed by Armenia’s requesting official Baku for time to return Lachin and Kelbajar,” Deputy Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan Araz Azimov said in an interview with public television.

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Three victories are celebrated in May, Armenian Defense Minister said on May 5.

“On May 9, we celebrate the victory in the Great Patriotic War, liberation of Shushi and formation of NKR Defense Army,” Seyran Ohanyan said during a meeting with students and teaching staff of Yerevan State University.

Drawing parallels between the GPW and Artsakh war, Minister Ohanyan said that there would be no victory in the Artsakh war but for the heroic victory in the GPW. “Both the Great Patriotic and Artsakh wars were imposed on us,” he said.

Upon completion of the meeting, Minister Ohanyan handed jubilee medals to the GPW veterans, who were present.

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The human factor is the most powerful weapon of the Armenian army, RA Defense Minister stated on May 5.

“With selfless relations between soldiers and commanders, we will always be winners,” Seyran Ohanyan said during a meeting with students and teaching staff of Yerevan State University.

“Our armed forces are set a task to meet international standards and become one of the most efficient armies in the world,” he said.

“Warlike statements can't guarantee a victory. The situation at the Arstakh front is controlled thanks to the efficiency of the Armenian army,” the Minister concluded.

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Sardarapat movement participants issued an address to NKR people.

“Karabakh war participants can’t turn a blind eye to measures aimed at Karabakh conflict settlement. Status quo established in May 1994, as well as the Armenian army are guarantors of safety and on non-resumption of hostilities in Artsakh,” the statement emphasized.

Movement participants urged Karabakh people to disbelieve promises of Turks and Azeris, who’ll attack the moment they take Armenian army at unawares.

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NKR people’s position, expressed at 1991 referendum, is the first priority in Karabakh conflict settlement, Armenian Foreign Ministry spokesman Tigran Balayan stated.

Commenting on official Baku’s allegations on Armenia’s “requesting for some time to resolve Karabakh conflict” and “absence of clear position” on the issue, the spokesman noted, “Armenia always remained firm in its position. Azerbaijan is just wasting time; sooner or later it will have to reckon with the free will of Karabakh people.”

As Tigran Balayan noted, failing to find understanding in their destructive position, some Azeri officials can think of nothing better than showing off in front of their own people through endless chain of falsifications and saber-rattling, RA Foreign Ministry press service reported.

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The first stage of the Armenian-Turkish process is completed, Director of Armenian Genocide Museum & Institute said on May 6.

“The dialogue failed because of Turkey, which preferred not to spoil relations with Azerbaijan but couldn’t suspend the process of international recognition of the Armenian Genocide or make Armenia compromise over the Karabakh issue,” Hayk Demoyan told journalists in Yerevan on May 6.

“A new normalization process should begin with opening of the Armenian-Turkish border and establishment of diplomatic relations. However, it cannot be based on the Protocols signed in Zurich in October 2009,” he said.

As to Turkey’s claims to Nakhijevan, Mr. Demoyan said these are groundless. “Turkey and Armenia have equal rights to Nakhijevan, since the Treaty of Kars determining the fate of the autonomy was signed by the Armenian SSR, Azerbaijan SSR and Turkey. “Viewing Turkey’s claims as violation of international agreements, Armenia can address to the International Court,” he said.

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The Protocols on normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations are not frozen but thrown into a wastebasket, according to Stepan Safaryan, head of the Heritage parliamentary group.

“Initially, the Protocols were aimed to weaken the Azeri-Turkish tandem,” he told a news conference in Yerevan on May 6. “With suspension of the ratification process in the Armenian parliament, Armenian-Turkish rapprochement can finally fail.”

Safaryan also said that under the circumstances, tensions in the Karabakh process will grow.

“Turkey uses the Karabakh problem as a tool to gain political dividends in regional issues but it can instigate Azerbaijan to launch hostilities,” he said.

As to Armenia’s domestic problems, he did not rule out early elections.

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Azerbaijan will not start a war against Karabakh without superpowers’ support, according to former NKR Foreign Minister Arman Melikyan.

As Arman Melikyan told a joint news conference with LPA chairman Hovhannes Hovhannesyan , “Today, negotiation process is being conducted in accordance with Baku’s wishes, so Azerbaijan will not withdraw from the process. Still, Azerbaijan seeks to speed up negotiations. Soon our authorities will see the necessity to change current format of talks.”

Melikyan characterized Baku’s statements on withdrawal of Armenian forces from Lachin and Kelbajar as a mere wish on behalf of Azerbaijan and Turkey.

“Yet, Karabakh territories can become an object of bargain between Russia and Azerbaijan. However, neither Azerbaijan nor Turkey became reliable partners to Russia, thus giving us a chance to maneuver,” ex-FM stated. According to Arman Melikyan’s forecast, active negotiations will be continued for another 3-5 years.

Hovhannes Hovhannesyan, in turn, expressed doubts over the possibility for Turkey to become OSCE MG Co-Chair. “Given US efforts to alter the status quo, Karabakh issue might soon be resolved,” LPA chairman concluded.

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Representative of the ARF Dashnaktsutyun Supreme Body, Chairman of the RA NA Standing Committee on Foreign Relations Armen Rustamyan said that though Iran is not an OSCE member, its invitation to the Minsk group conference should not be excluded.

“Thus, Tehran might get involved in the Karabakh conflict settlement process,” Rustamyan told a conference of Hay Dat Committees on May 7.

“The Russian-Georgian hostilities in 2008 generated new processes in the region. Changes which may lead to formation of a new system of regional security are taking place,” Rustamyan said.

He pointed out to Turkey’s activity in regional processes, adding that balance between Turkey and Iran needs to be reached. “We should prevent changes in the OSCE Minsk Group format or any parallel processes,” the MP said.

In Rustamyan’s opinion, Kosovo’s precedent and the 3+2 format, established in the South Caucasus (Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan - South Ossetia and Abkhazia), create a favorable atmosphere for Nagorno Karabakh, while Armenia should seize the opportunity and take action.

According to him, the initiated normalization with Turkey has resulted in new challenges for Armenia and region, as a whole.

“Rapprochement has never been an issue referring to Armenia and Turkey only. With superpowers involved in the process, Armenia should correctly assess its national interests,” Rustamyan emphasized.

He added that the Armenian-Turkish dialogue was initiated to ease the threat of war in the region. “However, statements on possible resumption of hostilities have become even more frequent. Yerevan has become a hostage of its own initiative through starting a dialogue with Ankara,” he concluded.

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Baku will not venture a war but if it does, Azerbaijan will become a confederation, stated Bakur Karapetyan, the head of Shushi Foundation.

“National minorities in Azerbaijan are watching their time to rebel against the authorities,” Mr. Karapetyan told a news conference on May 7.

“I am confident that Azerbaijan will not unleash a new war. The country which lost a war will need at least 50 more years to get rid of the loser syndrome,” he said.

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RA ex-minister of defense, member of the Central Board of Hnchak Social-Democratic Party Vahan Shirkhanyan said that if Azerbaijan resumes hostilities in Karabakh, this country will be divided into 5-6 parts and it will be fatal for Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan’s population has conceived long ago that Artsakh is in the hands of its real master, Shirkhanyan told a press conference in Yerevan. “The Azerbaijani army mainly consists of representatives of national minorities, who hardly will sacrifice their lives for the clan of Aliyevs,” he said.

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On May 7, RA Ministry of Defense issued an address regarding yet another upsurge of Azeri propagandistic hysteria caused by Seyran Ohanyan’s statement on Armenian Army’s goal to be reckoned among the strongest ones worldwide.

“Azerbaijan’s hysteria aims at distracting the attention of local community from mass deaths, suicides and violations often occurring in Azeri Army.

Azeri response in understandable, as military and political authorities can’t shed their defeatist syndromes, continuing to speak in the language of threats and slander.

Armenian Army is ready to defend its positions and respond properly to enemy attacks,” the address said.

Arshaluys Mghdesyan / PanARMENIAN News
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