Hague court ruling: a precedent to be used in Karabakh issue?

PanARMENIAN.Net - Mher Shahgeldyan pointed out that the statement of the Heads of Delegation of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair countries once again accentuated the three principles of international law for the Karabakh conflict settlement: the people’s right to self-determination, non-use of force and territorial integrity.

It is very important that the statement views these principles as something single and interrelated, Shahgeldyan stressed.

According to him, Armenia hails this approach of the Heads of Delegation of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair countries.

Shahgeldyan noted that Armenia’s diplomatic positions have strengthened in the Karabakh issue.

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People’s diplomacy will help overcome the atmosphere of mistrust and hostility between South Caucasus nations, Stepan Grigoryan, the head of the Analytical Center on Globalization and Regional Cooperation stated.

As he emphasized at July 26 news conference entitled Second Track Diplomacy and Peace in the South Caucaus: Presentation of the Rondine’s 14 Points for Peace, Rondine Cittadella della Pace Italian association and Rondine University plan to establish cooperation with Caucasus youth, offering a possibility of education at the university.

Rondine Cittadella della Pace association president Franco Vaccari, in turn, pointed out that 14 Points for Peace document was drawn out by Rondine University students.

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Hague court ruling proves the prevalence of people’s right to self-determination over territorial integrity principle, RA NA vice speaker Samvel Nikoyan stated.

As he told July 26 news conference in Yerevan, the 2 principles do not contradict each other, with territorial integrity principle to be applied in case one UN state encroaches on another’s territory. “The principle of people’s right to self-determination is to be applied in case when to defense its rights an ethnic minority is separating itself in accordance with international law to create its own state,” the vice speaker stated.

As Samvel Nikoyan pointed out, Azeri president should draw inferences from Kosovo precedent, with people’s right to self-determination given priority over territorial integrity principle in international practice. “Armenian parliament will use the ICJ ruling as a basis in a struggle for international recognition of NKR independence,” the vice speaker noted.

According to Nikoyan, Armenia’s recognizing Karabakh independence would be unreasonable at the moment, yet the possibility of recognizing it in future should not be ruled out.

“Currently Karabakh conflict settlement process is conducted under OSCE MG auspices, with Armenian side adhering to this position. Should Azerbaijan bring negotiations into impasse, continuing with ceasefire violations, Armenia may recognize NKR independence. This, in my opinion, is one of the most probable steps of Armenian side,” Nikoyan stated.

Samvel Nikoyan also drew similarities between Kosovo and Karabakh issues.

“Difference between Kosovo and Karabakh issue is Kosovo’s being situated in Europe and populated by Albanians,” Nikoyan noted.

“NKR announced separation from Azerbaijan in accordance with USSR legislation. Humanitarian catastrophe in Kosovo could only be curbed through international forces interference, while Artsakh people had only their own means to rely on.”

“However, from international law viewpoint, Kosovo and Karabakh issues are virtually similar,” RA NA vice speaker emphasized.

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Vice-Chairman of the Russian Academy of Geopolitical Problems Araik Sargsyan said that it is impossible to use the Kosovo precedent for the international recognition of NKR’s independence, as Kosovo is a program of the U.S. The Hague court’s ruling on Kosovo is conditioned by pressure of the U.S, Sargsyan told July 27 press conference in Yerevan.

According to him, the superpowers would have recognized NKR’s independence long ago, if it were within their interests. “The Karabakh conflict resolution is not within interests of the U.S., Great Britain and France, as the tense situation serves as a guarantee of their presence in the region,” Sargsyan said.

He added that the Albanian drug mafia spent $250mln for Kosovo's recognition by the international community. “The Armenian oligarchs are not ready to spend as much for the international recognition of NKR, as the Armenian leadership lacks relevant state policy and political will,” noted Sargsyan.

He added that NKR's independence will be recognized only in two cases: presence of relevant state policy and readiness to spend huge money, as well as in case of a new war, after which the sides will sign a peace agreement. “NKR will have the opportunity to be involved in talks again only in case of a new war,” said Sargsyan.

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Chairman of European Integration NGO Karen Bekaryan said on July 27 that the Hague court’s ruling on lawfulness of Kosovo’s secession from Serbia serves as a good reason for the Foreign Ministry of Artsakh to initiate a certain process on NKR’s international recognition.

“The fact that Karabakh is not directly involved in the talks provides Stepanakert with the opportunity to be less constrained in similar initiatives,” the expert stated.

Bekaryan added that the civil sector of NKR also should be involved in the process of international recognition of NKR’s independence.

As for Armenia’s steps in this process, according to Bekaryan, it should stir up the parliamentary diplomacy. “Through international organizations and parliamentary friendship groups Armenia may initiate steps for recognition of NKR’s independence by parliaments of friendly countries. In its turn, the Armenian Diaspora should assist Armenia and NKR in this process,” noted Bekaryan.

The expert said that the Hague court’s ruling will definitely have an impact on the negotiation process on Karabakh.

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Member of Republican Party of Armenia parliamentary group Lernik Alexanyan said that the ruling of the International Court of Justice on Kosovo will definitely have a positive impact on the Karabakh conflict resolution.

However, one should not expect it to have a considerable impact on the international recognition of NKR’s independence, Alexanyan told July 28 news conference in Yerevan.

According to Alexanyan, though non-binding, the ruling was passed in accordance with juridical logics. “The ruling is a good basis to transfer the Karabakh problem from the political field into a legal one. At last, the ruling will open the eyes of Azerbaijanis to the fact that the Karabakh conflict may be resolved in the legal field,” noted Alexanyan.

As for recognition of NKR's independence by Armenia, he said that Armenia should do it at a well-chosen moment. “Armenia should keep this step as a trump card in its relations with Azerbaijan to use it at the right moment,” said Alexanyan.

According to him, Armenia can use this trump card in two cases: if Azerbaijan resumes hostilities or favorable conditions are established in international relations for recognition of NKR’s independence.

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International Court of Justice ruling on Kosovo independence is important to Armenia and NKR, confirming that acknowledgement of NKR independence doesn’t run counter to international law, the head of ARFD Hay Dat Bureau Kiro Manoyan stated on July 28.

As he pointed out at news conference in Yerevan, Artsakh independence was declared in accordance with international law, as well as USSR legislation.

Characterizing statements on Hague court ruling referring to Kosovo case only as a flaw of judgment, Kiro Manoyan urged to undertake specific steps towards international recognition of NKR independence.

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Director of Sociometer center Aharon Adibekyan said that the Kosovo precedent has divided the expert community's opinion: a part of it stands for the people's right to self-determination, while the other part – for territorial integrity. “All of them are right,” Adibekyan told a press conference in Yerevan.

According to Adibekyan, in this case all depends on force. “Armenia has a force advantage in the Karabakh conflict settlement,” the Armenian sociologist said.

Presenting the results of sociological researches conducted by Sociometer center during the parliamentary elections in NKR, Adibekyan noted that 85% of NKR's population stands for independence, while 15% of it believes that a mutually acceptable solution should be achieved among the sides to the conflict, and only 0.1% of NKR's population sees its future within Azerbaijan's composition. “Possibly, these people held senior posts during the Soviet era,” said Adibekyan, adding that the number of those who support reunification with Armenia is decreasing in Karabakh with the lapse of time. “According to the results of our researches, only 33% of population supports reunification with Armenia, while 67% - independence,” noted Adibekyan.

At the same time, Adibekyan presented the results of recent sociological researches by an American company in Azerbaijan. According to them, less than half of the Azerbaijani population believes that NKR will be within the composition of Azerbaijan. “It is an obvious case of defeatist moods among the Azerbaijani population, what has become a cold shower on hot heads of Azerbaijani leaders,” concluded Aharonyan.

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Political analyst Sergey Shakaryants said that superpowers are tired of Baku's destructive stance in negotiations on the Karabakh conflict settlement.

According to him, statements of the OSCE Minsk Group’s Co-Chair countries contain clear messages for the Azerbaijani leadership. “Ilham Aliyev was clearly warned that Azerbaijan should reject military resolution of the Karabakh conflict,” Shakaryants told a press conference in Yerevan.

Thus, Baku will refrain from new provocations on the contact line in the near future, he said. Referring to the current situation around the Karabakh conflict, the political analyst said that Armenia and NKR have passed through this stage of negotiations without losses.

Commenting on the Hague court’s ruling, Shakaryants noted that it recognizes the declaration of independence, but not Kosovo’s independence as a state itself. He added that Kosovo cannot serve as a precedent for the Karabakh problem, as these conflicts are not similar.

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July 30, RA National Assembly speaker Hovik Abrahamyan addressed a letter to NATO Parliamentary Assembly President John Tanner, in reference to possible discussion of Nagorno-Karabakh issue at the NATO Parliamentary Assembly.

“I am surprised that such a step may have been taken without proper consultations with the members of the Armenian Delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly.

As is known, currently the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process runs under the auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairmen – USA, France and Russia. It is our strong conviction that given the confidentiality, specificity and delicacy of the negotiations, the initiatives held in formats other than the Minsk Group Co-Chairmanship, even with a good intent, preclude a great danger of jeopardizing the negotiation process and undermining the mediation efforts. Therefore, any initiative on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution requires prior consultations with the Co-Chair States of the Minsk Group, having in view that the USA and France are both NATO members.

The attempts of Azerbaijan to raise the Nagorno-Karabakh issue within different international formats are aimed at advertising Azerbaijan’s own perception of the conflict resolution with disregard of the entirety of principles proclaimed by the Co-Chairs as the basis for the conflict resolution. It is worth mentioning that the Co-Chair countries voted against the resolution proposed by Azerbaijan at the UN General Assembly session in March 2008, by stating that the “resolution selectively propagates only certain of the principles [of the conflict resolution] to the exclusion of others”.

Just a few days ago, exactly on July 17, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergei Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs of France Bernard Kouchner, and Deputy Secretary of State of the United States of America James Steinberg issued a statement where they reconfirmed the principles and elements of the conflict resolution stated by the Presidents of the OSCE Minsk Group’s Co-Chair countries at the G8 Summit convened on June 26, 2010 in Muskoka. They once more stressed the point that the mentioned principles and elements have been conceived as an integrated whole and that any attempt to give preferences over other principles would make it impossible to achieve a balanced solution.

With due respect to such an authoritative organization, as the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, we consider it our duty to remind that not in the distant past we had already experienced that the NATO PA report on Nagorno-Karabakh had provoked selective references, unsubstantiated interpretations, and wrong speculations. I believe that the report in no way has contributed to the creation of a favorable environment for the settlement process. I do not see any reason why this new initiative may yield a different result. It was due to the clear understanding of the sensitivity of the issue that the Secretary General Rasmussen and other NATO high ranking officials voiced their strong support for the efforts of the OSCE Minsk Group on different occasions and stressed that NATO did not have direct involvement in the issue nor did it play a role of its own in the mediation process.”

“Based on these concerns, I would like to strongly advise and suggest that the NATO Parliamentary Assembly refrain from addressing the issue on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict,” the letter concluded.

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After NATO PA session in Riga, Azeri delegation announced that a possibility to draft a report on Karabakh issue was discussed with NATO Parliamentary Assembly President John Tanner. The head of Armenian parliamentary delegation in NATO PA Karen Avagyan denied the information at the time, Heritage party leader, member of RA parliamentary delegation in NATO PA Stepan Safaryan stated on July 30.

As he pointed out in a conversation with PanARMENIAN.Net reporter, “Discussion of Karabakh conflict in any other structure but OSCE MG is unacceptable. In the present case, NATO PA has to realize, the Azeri initiative aims at raising the issue in international structures rather than promote its settlement.”

“Should NATO PA accept the suggestion, thus supporting destructive position of Azerbaijan, Armenia might need to give a serious thought as to unhealthy atmosphere within the Organisation,” Safaryan stated.

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On July 28, ANC political council hosted a sitting led by Congress leader Levon Ter-Petrossian.

RA internal and foreign policy, as well as ANC’s further actions were discussed at the council sitting.

ANC council also approved pension reform program project to be submitted for social discussion, ANC press service reported.

The next ANC meeting was scheduled for September 17.