Time for curtseys is now over

PanARMENIAN.Net - According to western logic, two months, which will pass since the day of promulgation of the principles, is utterly enough for societies of the two countries to be ready for what awaits them. As usual, no one intends to ask the opinion of the main side, i.e. the people of Nagorno-Karabakh, and it is exactly this fact that makes the whole construction vulnerable. A very remarkable incident occurred for all the process participants the day before: OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair, Ambassador Yuri Merzlyakov of Russia stated that the USA and RF change their mediators. French Co-Chair Bernard Fassier remains in his post, since it was only him who did not make statements, which would later be necessary to repudiate, shifting the blame onto "inaccuracy of translation". Moreover, Fassier gives the impression of a diplomat, who knows how to have his own will. Exactly this kind of mediators are necessary at the given moment, and most likely, Russia and the USA will choose proper partners for him. All these events give the impression that time of twisting arms is approaching. By the way, in vain Ilham Aliyev attaches so much importance to his hydrocarbon reserves: they will not save his country from the pressure of world powers. But we have only a very vague idea about what we will have as a result. What Armenia hopes for is completely obscure, as she has absolutely nothing. But if one takes into account the increasing in frequency visits of western diplomats, servicemen and officials, it becomes clear that Yerevan, in case of a certain fortunate course of events, will be able to somehow come out of the "regulation" process with minor losses. Let us recall that a pair of years ago with the same regularity Yerevan hosted Russian representatives, led by RF President Dmitry Medvedev. Something changed during the Obama-Medvedev meeting, after which the Karabakh process livened up. It is quite possible that the Presidents actually arrived at a specific agreement on Karabakh, naturally reporting about it to President of France Nicolas Sarkozy, the result of which was the statement in Aquila.

The change of Co-Chairs, in our opinion, pursued another goal too: both Mathew Bryza and Yuri Merzlyakov already "linger" on their posts and each of them has already developed predilections and even sympathies for this or that conflicting party, what, actually, is not true about Bernard Fassier. By the way, American cochairmen have always supported the position of Baku, being bound to her with energy interests. It is enough to recall Steven Mann, one of the initiators of the oil pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan or Mathew Bryza, who supports the Nabucco project. However, it is a bit more difficult to comment on the predilections of Russian diplomats, since they proceed from their own, sometimes incomprehensible, preferences, which are nearly always out of place. However, this is perhaps the requirement of traditions of the Russian diplomacy: at the last moment to do exactly what no one expects, and the recent Gazprom transaction with Baku can serve as a proof to it. But it's not so substantial. The real concern is how successful can the mediators carry out their mission, if it is really the one we think of.

But there may also be another turn of events. Let us assume that the USA and Russia renounce their mediation in view of the failed mission on regulation, and they are replaced by other countries, which will manage the process better. Naturally, Moscow and Washington will be backing them up. World powers believe that they can move aside, if a war suddenly breaks up in Karabakh. Only a very naive person can think so, or one who has calculated every step of the 'regulation' process. Non-alternativeness of a military solution and "compelling to peace" are quite different notions. But, unfortunately, the Co-Chairs are presently engaged in applying the second variant. Naturally, no president will sign the promulgated Madrid principles, since right after singing he will, at best, have to hand in his resignation. Armenia has already experienced it in 1998 and its repetition might have a very bad outcome on the country. As for Azerbaijan, it was able to avoid this scenario thanks to Heydar Aliyev. But his son can hardly manage to stay in power.

No matter what turn of events we'll witness, the region awaits great changes which we've been discussing since the beginning of the year. It is also clear that neither of the conflicting sides can benefit from these changes. The visit of the Vice President of the USA to Georgia was the last attempt to restore balance in the region, but, to all appearances, it was not so successful an attempt. The only comfort is that France will never give consent to the participation of Turkey in the regulation process, no matter how definitely the USA and Russia insist on it. And there is no doubt that they will insist, convince, and even force. The non-accidentally quieted down activity of the Turkish Foreign Minister has again livened up after the Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting.

At the Krakow meeting due in July the OSCE Minsk Group mediators are going to present to the Presidents and to the Armenian and Azerbaijani societies the refreshed principles. Little remains until we'll have a chance to see the complete plan of regulation of the Karabakh conflict, which, in a broader sense, does not exist. There exists only the desire of the USA and Russia, and recently also that of the European Union, to consolidate their position in the region; it is simply a sin not to use such a chance. As far as the population is concerned, it is always informed at the last moment, when either nothing can be done or it is necessary to launch a war. A third way-out, unfortunately, does not exist.