Tehran Offers an Outlet of Iranian Gas to Europe
Iranian authorities have announced their support to the project of constructing a gas-main pipeline through the territory of Armenia.
The 6th session of the Armenian-Iranian intergovernmental commission on economic cooperation has come to en end. The Co-chairman of the commission, head of the Armenian President's staff Artashes Tumanyan has returned from Tehran. It looks like the most interesting news, which Tumanyan has brought from Tehran, will be the Iranian party's proposal to construct another branch of gas pipeline in parallel with the one currently being constructed.
The fact that parties are really discussing the possibility of gas-main pipeline construction for gas transit to Europe has been officially confirmed for the first time. According to the press release on the results of negotiations held in Tehran, the Iranian Minister of Economy and Finance Davud Danesh Djafari said: "Iran supports the project of constructing a second branch to the current pipeline". Not the idea of constructing, but exactly the project. Should we understand from this that the project has already been worked out? The Armenian party's reaction to Djafarri's initiative is unknown. Nevertheless, it can be noticed that the Armenian administration is interested that the information about the existence of such a project reaches capitals of some super states. Otherwise, the second branch of the pipeline would not be mentioned in the press release. It is possible that this information also has a propagandistic importance on the threshold of the finish of talks on Russian gas prices.
It still quite difficult to make any predictions concerning the reality of the second pipeline. Interruptions in the Russian gas supply to the central-European market and the rise of gas prices for CIS counties undoubtedly strengthen trust in the future of this project. But only the wish of Yerevan and Tehran to implement such a giant project is of course not enough. (It is worth mentioning that the construction of a gas-main pipeline from the Iranian West Azerbaijan province through Armenia, Georgia and further on along the bottom Black Sea to the shores of Romania or Ukraine has been estimated to cost about 5 milliard dollars.) Thus, it is quite clear that without the involvement of Central and Eastern European countries, the project can have absolutely no future. Therefore it can be assumed that Djaffari's initiative is addressed not only to Armenian authorities. Most probably it is a signal for Europe.
The fact that Iran makes such a proposal right now may have certain reasons. Currently discussions of the purposefulness of passing Iranian nuclear dossier for UN Security Council's consideration are in full swing. The European troika - France, Britain and Germany have given their support to the proposal of United States to pass the Iranian dossier to the Security Council. There are little doubts that discussions in UN will result in sanctions against Tehran and will give a start to a long confrontation. Tehran wants to convince European countries that they should not be interested in applying strict sanctions, including economic embargo, since they need Iranian gas. Talking about the construction of the second branch to Iran-Armenia pipeline, Djaffari makes it clear for the West that Iranian gas can occur in Europe very soon. The only thing needed is that Europe does not follow the tastes of Washington and does not demand any sanctions from the Security Council.
Anyway, let us return to Armenia. Do Armenian authorities believe in the reality of the second pipe for gas transit? A week ago, answering this question, the President's press secretary said: "The pipeline will be put into operation at the end of 2006. We shall be able to answer that question after a month from that". Thus, we can assume that already today Yerevan does not exclude the possibility of the second pipeline's construction through the territory of Armenia. If it is so, why didn't official Yerevan foresee such a situation and did not construct a pipe of a diameter which could allow to use it not only for avowed aims, but also for transit? Iran was more far-sighted and brought to the Armenian border a 1.5m pipe with a much more capacity than provided by the Armenian-Iranian agreement signed two years ago.
If Iran-Europe gas-main pipeline is destined to become reality, it will turn out that Armenia has wasted giant funds for the construction of the 700mm pipe. And all of this is because we relied on the loyalty of "Gasprom" which could dislike the 1.5m diameter of the pipe. Wishing to convince Moscow that Iran-Armenia gas pipeline will not give start to the global Iran-Europe gas project, we made a step, which tied our hands. We still have to reap the fruits of that step but was that self-sacrifice appreciated in "Gasprom"?...
It still quite difficult to make any predictions concerning the reality of the second pipeline. Interruptions in the Russian gas supply to the central-European market and the rise of gas prices for CIS counties undoubtedly strengthen trust in the future of this project. But only the wish of Yerevan and Tehran to implement such a giant project is of course not enough. (It is worth mentioning that the construction of a gas-main pipeline from the Iranian West Azerbaijan province through Armenia, Georgia and further on along the bottom Black Sea to the shores of Romania or Ukraine has been estimated to cost about 5 milliard dollars.) Thus, it is quite clear that without the involvement of Central and Eastern European countries, the project can have absolutely no future. Therefore it can be assumed that Djaffari's initiative is addressed not only to Armenian authorities. Most probably it is a signal for Europe.
The fact that Iran makes such a proposal right now may have certain reasons. Currently discussions of the purposefulness of passing Iranian nuclear dossier for UN Security Council's consideration are in full swing. The European troika - France, Britain and Germany have given their support to the proposal of United States to pass the Iranian dossier to the Security Council. There are little doubts that discussions in UN will result in sanctions against Tehran and will give a start to a long confrontation. Tehran wants to convince European countries that they should not be interested in applying strict sanctions, including economic embargo, since they need Iranian gas. Talking about the construction of the second branch to Iran-Armenia pipeline, Djaffari makes it clear for the West that Iranian gas can occur in Europe very soon. The only thing needed is that Europe does not follow the tastes of Washington and does not demand any sanctions from the Security Council.
Anyway, let us return to Armenia. Do Armenian authorities believe in the reality of the second pipe for gas transit? A week ago, answering this question, the President's press secretary said: "The pipeline will be put into operation at the end of 2006. We shall be able to answer that question after a month from that". Thus, we can assume that already today Yerevan does not exclude the possibility of the second pipeline's construction through the territory of Armenia. If it is so, why didn't official Yerevan foresee such a situation and did not construct a pipe of a diameter which could allow to use it not only for avowed aims, but also for transit? Iran was more far-sighted and brought to the Armenian border a 1.5m pipe with a much more capacity than provided by the Armenian-Iranian agreement signed two years ago.
If Iran-Europe gas-main pipeline is destined to become reality, it will turn out that Armenia has wasted giant funds for the construction of the 700mm pipe. And all of this is because we relied on the loyalty of "Gasprom" which could dislike the 1.5m diameter of the pipe. Wishing to convince Moscow that Iran-Armenia gas pipeline will not give start to the global Iran-Europe gas project, we made a step, which tied our hands. We still have to reap the fruits of that step but was that self-sacrifice appreciated in "Gasprom"?...
