A number of experts suppose A. Margaryan's death may influence on internal political situation of Armenia
The post of prime minister in Armenia is not political one, i.e. it does not determine anything, until any force majeur situation takes place.
As expected, Armenian Prime Minister's sudden death became a cause for various kinds of conjectures and suppositions for a number of experts and analysts. Even some Azeri and Russian political scientists began to guess that Andranik Margaryan did not die naturally. Let us leave those suppositions on the conscious of "experts", moreover if those suppositions do not have anything in common with the reality.
And moreover, it is immoral to make such statements or draw a parallel with the "fusillade in the parliament" in 1999. The late Premier was distinguished with his rare ability to keep away from games of politics. And maybe because of this A. Margaryan occupied the post of Prime Minister for a long time. It's also true that the post of prime minister in Armenia is not political one, i.e. it nearly does not determine anything, until any force majeur situation takes place, like the resignation of Levon Ter-Petrosyan in 1998. But this is rather an exception from rules. According to the Constitution of the country the post of Prime Minister in the table of ranks occupies the third place following the posts of President and Speaker. However the fact that this post belongs to the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) cannot be ignored.
Now Defense Minister Serzh Sargsyan will head the list of the Republican Party of Armenia; most probably Mr. Sargsyan will become Armenia's Prime Minister till the May 12 parliamentary election in the country. What will happen after the elections is not clear yet. Though RPA declares the position of the party has not undergone any changes, actually republicans staggered a bit. The Prime Minister was a rather outstanding figure in the party and after his death the party may gather less votes than they expected. But all these are suppositions. It seems that currently everyone will be satisfied seeing Serzh Sargsyan in the post of Prime Minister simultaneously keeping the post of Defense Minister. And regardless of the attitude of opposition to this appointment, which by the way, merely does not decide anything and cannot do anything, only Serzh Sargsyan remains almost the only candidate for this post proceeding from the Regulation of RPA and agreement between coalition parties-RPA, ARF Dashnaktsutyun and United Labor Party (ULP), which replaced "Orinats Yerkir".
But this is country's internal policy. As to the foreign policy, here too the policy of the RA again according to the Constitution, determines the president of the country and not the Premier. Because of this very reason there is no base to worry for European and Russian officials that Armenia's foreign course may undergo a rapid change. According to political scientist Sergey Markedonov, on the eve of parliamentarian election in Armenia the death of Andranik Margaryan may seriously influence on the internal political situation of the country, taking into account the fact that how policy on the post-Soviet territory is personalized. At the same time, as the expert thinks, serious changes are not expected in Armenian-Russian relations. According to Markedonov, any following leader of Armenia "will carry out less pro-Russian and more diverse foreign policy, but it will not become a change towards Russia". Indeed, some Russian analysts for some reasons considered Margaryan a pro-Western politician; actually this did not represent the facts obviously.
As to the personality of future prime minister, for the most part besides Serzh Sargsyan still no candidature is being viewed for that post. Good or bad-is a secondary question, since the most important challenge for Armenian authorities is to provide stability and normal parliamentary elections. And nobody but the current Defense Minister can handle this task.
Now Defense Minister Serzh Sargsyan will head the list of the Republican Party of Armenia; most probably Mr. Sargsyan will become Armenia's Prime Minister till the May 12 parliamentary election in the country. What will happen after the elections is not clear yet. Though RPA declares the position of the party has not undergone any changes, actually republicans staggered a bit. The Prime Minister was a rather outstanding figure in the party and after his death the party may gather less votes than they expected. But all these are suppositions. It seems that currently everyone will be satisfied seeing Serzh Sargsyan in the post of Prime Minister simultaneously keeping the post of Defense Minister. And regardless of the attitude of opposition to this appointment, which by the way, merely does not decide anything and cannot do anything, only Serzh Sargsyan remains almost the only candidate for this post proceeding from the Regulation of RPA and agreement between coalition parties-RPA, ARF Dashnaktsutyun and United Labor Party (ULP), which replaced "Orinats Yerkir".
But this is country's internal policy. As to the foreign policy, here too the policy of the RA again according to the Constitution, determines the president of the country and not the Premier. Because of this very reason there is no base to worry for European and Russian officials that Armenia's foreign course may undergo a rapid change. According to political scientist Sergey Markedonov, on the eve of parliamentarian election in Armenia the death of Andranik Margaryan may seriously influence on the internal political situation of the country, taking into account the fact that how policy on the post-Soviet territory is personalized. At the same time, as the expert thinks, serious changes are not expected in Armenian-Russian relations. According to Markedonov, any following leader of Armenia "will carry out less pro-Russian and more diverse foreign policy, but it will not become a change towards Russia". Indeed, some Russian analysts for some reasons considered Margaryan a pro-Western politician; actually this did not represent the facts obviously.
As to the personality of future prime minister, for the most part besides Serzh Sargsyan still no candidature is being viewed for that post. Good or bad-is a secondary question, since the most important challenge for Armenian authorities is to provide stability and normal parliamentary elections. And nobody but the current Defense Minister can handle this task.
