May 14, 2021 - 18:55 AMT
Thomas de Waal: Armenia-Azerbaijan crisis closer to violence than to peace

The situation on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan looks worrying, and closer to new violence than to peace agreement, British journalist and writer on the Caucasus Thomas de Waal said in a Twitter thread on Friday, May 14.

De Waal's comment came amid renewed tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan, after the latter violated the border with Armenia in three areas and is now refusing to withdraw its troops.

According to the expert, Armenia is still in turmoil, smarting from the defeat in the 44-day war in Nagorno-Karabakh this past fall, as well as at continued detention of around 200 prisoners of war from the conflict. De Waal said there are worries in Armenia "that Azerbaijan keeps captives as bargaining chips to try and ensure compliance on new transport route to Nakhichevan."

"Why is [Azerbaijan] doing this? The short answer is because it can. Who can stop this? Probably only Russia—but if it fits with Russia’s bigger agenda," de Waal said, citing CivilNet's Russian-language interview with analyst Alik Iskandarian, director of the Caucasus Institute, about the matter.

On the morning of May 12, the armed forces of Azerbaijan violated the border of Armenia in the southern province of Syunik, advancing 3.5 kilometers and surrounding Sev Lake, which is situated on the border between the two countries but is predominantly a part of Armenia. On May 13, the Azerbaijani military committed more border violations against Armenia, advancing near Vardenis (Gegharkunik province) and Sisian (Syunik province).