Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his Civil Contract party have experienced a decline in public support in recent years. However, they continue to lead in opinion polls, according to data from various surveys.

Opposition figures, including MP Garnik Danielyan of the "Armenia" faction and Hayk Mamijanyan of "I Have Honor," have claimed that Pashinyan's approval has reached historic lows. Analysts reviewed data from two major research institutions and concluded that while trust in Pashinyan and Civil Contract has decreased over time, they still hold a leading position in public opinion.

The Caucasus Research Resource Center (CRRC) has conducted public opinion surveys in Armenia since 2004. In 2019, 35% of respondents identified Civil Contract as the party closest to them. By 2021, this figure had dropped to 22%, and in the latest 2024 survey, only 15% expressed trust in the party. Notably, 55% of respondents in 2024 stated they did not feel close to any political party.

Similarly, in 2022, 17% of surveyed individuals expressed trust in Pashinyan. This figure remained unchanged in 2023. In the 2024 survey conducted in September, 16% of participants named Pashinyan as the most trusted political figure, while 61% indicated they did not trust any politician. Despite this, Civil Contract remained the leading party, with 20% support, and an additional 2% for the now-defunct "My Step" alliance.

The 2024 data also revealed demographic variations. In Yerevan, 13% of respondents trusted Pashinyan; in other cities, 14%; and in rural areas, 20%. Among displaced individuals from Nagorno-Karabakh, only 2% expressed trust in him.

In summary, while Pashinyan and Civil Contract have seen a decline in approval ratings, they continue to lead in public opinion polls, reflecting a fragmented political landscape with no clear alternative gaining significant traction.