Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has published updated macroeconomic projections for Armenia covering 2025–2027. It expects the country’s GDP to grow by 5.5 % in 2025, by 5.3 % in 2026, and by 5.0 % in 2027.

These revised estimates exceed earlier projections, supported by several factors including the central bank’s latest assessments, Sputnik Armenia reports.

The Central Bank now views a 5 % growth rate as the natural economic norm, up from the previous range of 4–4.5 %.

This uptick also reflects increased efficiency and remittance inflows since 2022. Return flows are expected to be gradual, allowing the economy time to adapt.

The EDB also addressed inflation trends. Analysts see historically low inflation around 1 % or even negative in 2023–2024. In recent months inflation has edged upward and is expected to stabilize around 3 %, or slightly higher, driven by international food price recovery and ongoing cuts to refinancing rates.

These monetary measures over the past 18 months aimed to stimulate economic growth.

EDB forecasts inflation at 3.1 % by end‑2025, 3.0 % in 2026, and 2.5 % in 2027—within the central bank’s target range of 3 % ± 1 %.

The Armenian dram is projected to depreciate moderately against the U.S. dollar: around 392 AMD per dollar in 2025, and about 402–403 AMD in 2026–2027.

These exchange‑rate shifts reflect reduced attractiveness of dram‑denominated investments due to interest‑rate cuts and increased imports amid stable internal demand.

The EDB analysts also flagged potential risks, particularly geopolitical headwinds. In such scenarios inflation could intensify, external demand—especially in tourism—could fall, and risk premiums on Armenian assets could rise.