Armenia’s Foreign Intelligence Service has released its 2026 annual risk assessment, concluding that a large-scale military escalation with Azerbaijan is highly unlikely this year, Armenpress reports.

The report attributes this outlook to intensive bilateral negotiations held in 2025 and the Washington Declaration signed on August 8 with U.S. President Donald Trump’s mediation, along with the preliminary agreement on “Peace and the Establishment of Interstate Relations.”

“Following comprehensive analysis of these developments and associated data, we consider military escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2026—on any scale and with political intent—almost impossible. Even smaller incidents or local operations without political intent are seen as unlikely,” the report states.

The assessment adds that progress is possible in border delimitation and demarcation, as well as in economic initiatives, civil dialogue, and humanitarian cooperation. Should regional infrastructure links reopen, such progress could deepen Armenia’s ties with its neighbors.

At the same time, the report warns that risks remain due to actions by states seeking to expand or consolidate their regional influence. It highlights Azerbaijan’s propaganda strategy, which targets Armenia’s sovereignty.

“The continued use of narratives and concepts by Azerbaijan and other actors that question Armenia’s sovereignty or obstruct connectivity projects will only contribute to the materialization of these risks,” the report concludes.