In a Facebook post, former Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian warned that Armenia’s upcoming parliamentary elections, scheduled for June 7, 2026, will be decisive in shaping the country’s governance over the next five years. However, he expressed concern that Armenia is no longer seen as a sovereign nation, but rather as a "governed political space."

According to Oskanian, external actors, including the collective West, Turkey, and Azerbaijan, have already begun their "voting" through strategic maneuvers before Armenian citizens even cast their ballots.

“In other words, the ‘real residents of Armenia’—those external powers—are already making their preferences known. These are overt, systematic, and transactional. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance’s public endorsement of Nikol Pashinyan marks the beginning of a predictable sequence. In May, European leaders will arrive in Yerevan with similar messages of support. Ankara is likely to follow with symbolic gestures like partially opening the Turkish-Armenian border. Baku may release some Armenian detainees and sign a peace agreement—though likely without ratifying it until all its demands are met,” he wrote.

Oskanian stressed that each such gesture carries a price and that price will be paid by Armenia.

He argued that Western capitals have a clear strategic goal: to reduce Russia’s role in the South Caucasus, regardless of whether viable security alternatives exist for Armenia. Turkey’s aim, he said, is to secure an uninterrupted corridor linking Anatolia to Central Asia’s Turkic world. Azerbaijan’s objectives are the most concrete: to entrench its presence in Syunik, secure permanent access to Nakhichevan, and solidify the geopolitical consequences of the ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Maintaining Armenia’s current leadership, Oskanian claimed, is crucial to fulfilling these three agendas.

He warned that Azerbaijan may also expect further territorial concessions, constitutional changes in Armenia, and the gradual emergence of Azerbaijani presence within Armenian territory—all without resorting to full-scale warfare, relying instead on "managed diplomacy, international applause, and a compliant partner in Yerevan."

“The true danger of the upcoming elections lies not in the existence of foreign interests—that’s always been the case—but in the fact that Armenia is now treated as a political territory to be managed. Elections serve not to make real choices but to formally confirm decisions already made,” he concluded.

Armenia’s next parliamentary elections are scheduled for June 7, 2026.