July 1, 2009 - 13:42 AMT
Igor Yurgens: Russia closely watches the conflicts in Nagorno Karabakh an Transnistria
"I was shocked when the Georgian leader was awarded with Armenia's top order. This might be conditioned by a certain success in Russia-Azerbaijan talks on energy and Karabakh," he said.

According to Mr. Yurgens, isolated Armenia, developing relations with Turkey, common energy issues with Azerbaijan and Georgian people's discontent with the leadership are the factors which Russia can successfully use.

"However, if we make mistakes the tensions in the South Caucasus will grow," he said, adding that Russia closely watches the conflicts in Nagorno Karabakh an Transnistria.

"Traditional Helsinki principles do not work after Kosovo, Abkhazia and South Ossetia precedents. A new formula should be developed," he said. "If Russia manages to avoid provocations and mistakes, neither Georgia nor Ukraine will join NATO."