Nagorno-Karabakh is often described as one of several post-Soviet “frozen conflicts”. However, as the war in 2008 between Russia and Georgia over the breakaway territory of South Ossetia showed, ice can melt quickly, an article “Conflict on Ice” published in The Economist British weekly said.

“In Soviet times Nagorno-Karabakh was a mostly Armenian-populated autonomous territory inside Azerbaijan, some 4,000 square kilometres (1,540 square miles) big. Conflict erupted in 1988 as the territory’s Armenians sought to secede from Azerbaijan. By the time the war ended in 1994, the victorious Armenians had doubled the territory’s size and carved out a land corridor to Armenia proper. Between 1988 and 1994 more than 1m Armenians and Azeris fled from both countries and Nagorno-Karabakh. Azeri-populated towns in the region were left devastated.

Outsiders have worked on peace plans since 1995 but none has stuck. Yet the outline of a deal seems clear. Nagorno-Karabakh, which declared independence in 1991, will return to Azerbaijan much of the land it won in the war. Then, after an “interim” period, the people of the territory, including Azeri refugees living outside, will vote on its final status.

Officials in Nagorno-Karabakh say there can be no deal without their agreement. This is not bravado. The president of Armenia and his predecessor are from the region. Ara Haratyunyan, Nagorno-Karabakh’s prime minister, says he doubts Azerbaijan will ever accept his territory’s independence. Still, he cheerfully points out, GDP has doubled in the past four years (largely thanks to transfers from Armenia and the diaspora).

In contrast to the war years, Azerbaijan is flush with cash from oil and gas. This year 16.5% of its budget has been set aside for military spending: this is roughly equivalent to the entire budgets of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh combined. Yet officials in Stepanakert, Nagorno-Karabakh’s capital, seem relaxed. Russia is committed to Armenia’s defence. And a strategic pipeline pumping oil to the West from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan passes just 12 miles from Nagorno-Karabakh-controlled territory. Shelling could quickly cripple it,” the article concludes.