In Ankara Putin and Erdogan will persuade each other to "discipline" Baku and Yerevan

PanARMENIAN.Net - Settlement of old conflicts like Karabakh, Abkhazia or South-Ossetia is only a supplement to the main part of the story. Turkey and Russia now need that the regulation, in particular, of the Karabakh conflict be controlled by Moscow and Ankara. In a favorable course of events Russia and Turkey will seize almost full power in the region and the hopes of Europe for gas independence will be brought to naught. But these are, as you might say, not "our" problems. Armenia, and probably Azerbaijan are now anxious to know what conclusion the two premiers will arrive at in the end and how they will wish to solve the Karabakh problem. The recent developments around Azerbaijan show that the positions of Baku have somewhat shaken in the world arena: Azerbaijan is reproached with non-respect for human rights, corruption and other deadly sins. Possibly, this is the charge for selling the gas to Gazprom, who knows? But that very Gazprom, (or, to be more accurate, Russia) promises nothing and it could not promise, for there is Armenia, which will have to turn her back to her Big Brother, what we have been repeatedly writing about. So, it is necessary to come to an agreement with Turkey. By the way, Putin will be persuading Erdogan to "discipline" Baku, and Erdogan, in his turn, will persuade Putin to do the same with respect to Armenia.

Naturally, Nagorno-Karabakh is going to be the defeated party in this trade if Armenia does not show sufficient firmness and does not take measures that would help to preserve her present position. However, actions, or to be more accurate, the inaction of Armenian diplomacy sometimes puts us on our guard. While Baku shouts at the top of her voice about the refugees and Armenian aggressors, Yerevan behaves as if it isn't at all addressed to her and doesn't take actions to bar the discussion of the Karabakh issue in the United Nations. Most likely, the issue of United Nations will be touched upon in Ankara during the negotiations, because Turkey has become a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council, and Russia, being a permanent member, can block or, on the contrary, give "green light" to the consideration of Karabakh problem. This, in its turn, means that Baku can achieve her goal by carrying out the process of regulation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict beyond the frames of the OSCE Minsk Group. This is, after all, a possible outcome and Armenia, as always, will be set to face a fact. Simply this time everything is much more serious and the resolution on "occupied territories" may be freely accepted by majority of votes. We'll comfort ourselves with the fact that UN resolutions, as a rule, are not carried out, although this is a not a strong relief and the organization may suddenly insist on the fulfillment of its recommendations.

It is appropriate to mention here that in spite of summer time, political life in the region is rather active and it is not expected to drop off, which gives grounds to assume that considerable changes are expected in two or three months. So far no one takes Iran seriously as a potentially powerful regional player, and this state of affairs will continue until relative order is established in this country. In other words, the situation will carry on until the opposition and the conservatives arrive at a unanimous view.

There is one more delicate point that we did not mention: the Kars agreement, which has become sticking point between Armenia, Turkey and partly Russia. The two premiers will definitely touch upon this agreement during the negotiations, but what they will arrive at is very difficult to say, especially in view of the latest statement of the Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, who demonstratively presented an ultimatum to Turkey. If Armenia is firm in her position, Sargsyan is not going to attend the football match. But if at the last moment the Armenian President leaves for Bursa, it will actually mean a political defeat. This is what Armenia should fear most, and what Putin and Erdogan will discuss behind her back is not that vital.