What effect will the meeting between Armenian, Azerbaijani and Russian Presidents have?

PanARMENIAN.Net - That Russian positions cracked in the Region is quite a fact, and the regional states will hardly seek repetition of the Georgian scenario. Especially at the time of financial-economic crisis the policy of twisting arms, which, by the way, neither bypassed Russia, cannot lead us to a silent consent with the Russian viewpoint. However strange it may sound, Armenia found itself in a more advantageous position than Georgia or Azerbaijan. It has neither oil, nor passage to the Black Sea, but it has a great desire to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with minimal losses. Now we shall not dwell on the fact that doing it behind the back of Nagorno Karabakh is not ethical at all. That's not the point. Yerevan has simply received a certain impulse and a little freedom of manipulation in the painful issue. Now the future of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic and that of Armenia itself depend on how Armenia will make use of the situation, and Yerevan cannot but realize the real value of the moment.

The Region is changing rapidly, and quite soon we shall have to deal with a fairly new South Caucasus. It presupposes new relations too: Russia-South Caucasus, USA-South Caucasus, and Turkey-South Caucasus. As for the Karabakh conflict, it has always been a format of rivalry between Russia and the United States. This rivalry has always existed, but it has become more intense now, and the latest events are the proof of it: the Washington meeting of Armenian Prime-Minister Tigran Sargsyan with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, the one-day visit of US Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried, and before it - visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. However, Russia faces a serious problem after the «five-day war»: its image has been thoroughly destroyed in the eyes of the world community, and now Russia has to prove that militant solution of the South Ossetian and Abkhazian conflict was just an exception and that the Russian Federation is potent enough to solve its problems in some other ways too, i.e. through negotiations. "The events of August 2008 have created a new platform for the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Azerbaijan will never become a completely pro-western country, like Georgia is. Moreover, the latter has been disvalued as an oil and gas transit country and the world powers have given a fresh look at Armenia, whose 'football diplomacy' produced the desired effect. Turkey had started developing its Caucasus stability and cooperation pact still in spring of the current year and the five-day war in South Ossetia just pushed Ankara to action. Thus, the Turkish initiative has not only played its role in the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, but it has also changed the whole situation in the region," considers political analyst Sergey Minasyan. Minasyan also notes Russia's «strange» intention to speed up the Nagorno-Karabakh process. "Presently Russia is imitating the Ramboullet and Bucharest scenarios. However, for the conflicting sides maintenance of the status quo and assistance from the U.S. and EU is more preferable. I am not sure that speeding up the process is in Russia's interests," Minasyan says.

According to Head of the Russian Duma Defence Committee Viktor Zavarzin, the intended meeting between Armenian, Azerbaijani and Russian Presidents will convey a new impulse to the Karabakh talks and will help to ease the stress in the Region. "Resolution of the conflict is possible only on the negotiation level with observation of international norms, and it should satisfy all the interested parties," Zavarzin concluded.

One point, however, remains incomprehensible - how is it possible to satisfy all the interested parties of the conflict?

Karine Ter-Sahakyan