Polish expert rules out repetition of Ukraine's scenario in Armenia

Polish expert rules out repetition of Ukraine's scenario in Armenia

PanARMENIAN.Net - Recent developments in Ukraine are controlled by diplomatic representations of a number of states including the U.S. and EU, Polish political scientist Mateusz Piskorski told PanARMENIAN.Net

As he noted, "support of the so-called opposition" can well be construed as interference in Ukraine's internal affairs; however, on the other hand, internal struggle between the clans of the Party of Regions creates grounds for interference.

"Clearly, a number of major Ukrainian oligarchs promote tensions in Kyiv. In fact, the Ukrainian authorities are not interested in stopping the wave of protests. Protesters at Liberty Square (Maidan Nezalezhnosti) could be dispersed within 3 hours. Yet the government is wary of the response, unable to make a final selection between the Russia-led Customs Union and the EU," the expert said.

As the expert further noted, Yerevan has no prerequisites for repetition of Ukraine’s scenario, with the majority of Armenians supporting the authorities’ pro-Russian course. “President Sargsyan's choice in September 2013 was a choice of safety, so, I believe, repetition of the Ukrainian scenario is impossible in Armenia. Theoretically, opposition protests of the same scale as in Ukraine would be possible in Azerbaijan, hadn't the country's opposition been so weak. Also, as a police state, Azerbaijan, unlike Ukraine, wouldn’t tolerate lengthy protests," the expert concluded.

A wave of ongoing demonstrations and civil unrest in Ukraine began on the night of 21 November 2013 with public protests demanding closer European integration, after the Ukrainian government suspended preparations for signing an Association Agreement and a Free Trade Agreement with the European Union, in favor of closer economic dependence on Russia.

The scope of the protests has since evolved, with many calls for the resignation of President Viktor Yanukovych and his government. In January 2014, Mykola Azarov had offered to step down as prime minister to create "social and political compromise". President Yanukovych accepted the resignation of the prime minister and his cabinet amid continuing anti-government protests.

During a Sept 3 meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Armenian leader Serzh Sargsyan said Armenia is ready to join Customs Union, with further plans to be involved in formation of the Eurasian Economic Union. Mr. Putin supported the initiative, vowing procedural assistance to Armenia.

A draft resolution on Armenia’s accession to the Customs Union and unified economic zone was approved at the Minsk-hosted Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting Dec 24.

On Jan 23, Armenian government has approved the list of measures for joining the Customs Union.

Eastern Partnership

The Eastern Partnership (EaP) is the first comprehensive initiative introduced into the system of the European Union’s external relations, addressed to Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. The Eastern Partnership is designed to help the countries of Eastern Europe and South Caucasus with their approximation to and integration with the European Union. The EaP has injected a new quality into relations between the EU and the countries covered by the initiative through their gradual integration with the European Union.

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