Despite Netanyahu claim, cheap oil not seen swaying Iran, diplomats say

PanARMENIAN.Net - When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged the United States this week to take a tough line against Iran, he argued that world powers could always push for a better nuclear deal because the Islamic Republic was vulnerable to low oil prices, according to Reuters.

But the claim that lower oil prices can sway Iran, a major crude producer, into making greater concessions on its nuclear program seems unrealistic, experts, diplomats and even Republican lawmakers said on Wednesday, March 4.

They noted that Iran has withstood extreme fluctuations in crude prices before and that sanctions have blunted the effect of oil on its economy. Others said Iran would likely view any further concessions as humiliating and would be prepared to forego a deal if the current talks collapsed.

Most doubted that oil alone would force Tehran into a significant shift in its bargaining position.

"I think it hurts their economy, there's no doubt about that. But I don't think it's decisive," Senator John McCain, a leading Republican voice on foreign policy issues, told Reuters on Wednesday.

In his speech to Congress on Tuesday, Netanyahu cited cheap oil as a prime reason why the United States and other powers could afford to hold off on signing a "bad" nuclear deal with Iran ahead of an end-March deadline for a framework agreement.

The Israeli leader, who says the current prospective deal would hand Tehran a path to an atom bomb, called Iran "a very vulnerable regime, especially given the recent collapse in the price of oil."

"They'll be back because they need the deal a lot more than you do," he told lawmakers.

Sanctions have halved Iran's oil exports to just over 1 million barrels per day since 2012, spurring inflation and unemployment that the Obama administration has credited for forcing Iran into negotiations.

Iran's oil and natural gas export revenue was $56 billion in the 2013-14 fiscal year, according to the International Monetary Fund. That compares to $118 billion worth of export revenue from oil and gas in 2011-12.