Armenia cautiously reports signs of success in fighting Covid-19

PanARMENIAN.Net - The fight against the spread of the novel coronavirus in Armenia has been showing signs of success, according to information provided by the authorities. The number of new infections announced in the past several days suggests the spread of Covid-19 in Armenia might be slowing down.

The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the country climbed by only 11 to reach 833 on Monday, April 6. A total of 62 patients have recovered from the disease so far, while eight have died. 52 and 34 new cases were registered in the country on Sunday, and Saturday, respectively.

Health Minister Arsen Torosyan unveiled infographics on Sunday showing that the number of infections has doubled in the past seven days. Deputy Prime Minister and Commandant Tigran Avinyan added, however, that the dynamics of the temporal reproduction number (Rt) is key in combating the disease.

In epidemiology, Avinyan explained, the reproduction number can be defined as the average number of people who will catch a disease from a single infected person: the higher the reproduction number, the higher the number of people a carrier can infect.

“That is why so many countries are implementing "social distancing" guidelines as an important tool in the fight against Covid-19,” Avinyan said.

The Deputy Prime Minister revealed that movement restrictions imposed by the authorities on March 25 have driven the disease’s reproduction rate to 1.4 from almost 2 a week ago.

Avinyan said the reproduction needs to be reduced to below one within the coming week, which would make the fight against the spread of the virus manageable.

The idea of slowing the spread of a virus is known as "flattening the curve". The "curve" scientists are talking about refers to the projected number of people who will contract a virus – in this case Covid-19 – over a given period of time.

So, imagine a curve infographics displaying the number of people infected over a certain period of time.

When case counts keep doubling at a consistent rate, the curve takes on a steep shape, which means that the total number of cases reaches its peak within only a few weeks. A flatter curve, meanwhile, assumes that the same number of people ultimately get infected, but over a longer period of time.

A slower infection rate means there are enough hospital beds, doctors and resources to treat the sick.