“Greater Middle East” gradually becoming a reality

PanARMENIAN.Net - Relations with Iran are good in general and have a tendency to expand, particularly in the energy sector. Iran has already built two small hydropower plants on the Araks River; the Iran-Armenia pipeline, built within the program of diversification of energy supplies to Armenia, is successfully completed. Construction of a petroleum refinery in Southern Armenia (Meghri) is in the design phase. Feasibility study was carried out by Russian and Armenian specialists. The two countries have had no hard or bloody past, and the Armenian community in Iran, amounting to about 200,000 people, enjoys the locals’ respect. In the Karabakh issue Iran is neutral, but she is always ready to offer her services as a mediator. However, Iran cannot become an OSCE Minsk Group member, and, consequently, she cannot be an intermediary. Yet, it must be admitted that with Iran’s support there would have been registered some progress in this issue. Let us not forget that Iran is in rather difficult relations with neighboring Azerbaijan, which lays claims to the province of Southern Azerbaijan, and believes that it is her territory. Despite the positive statements by Azerbaijani officials about the “excellent relations with the friendly Islamic country”, everything is not actually so rosy. Azerbaijan’s territorial claims, coupled with the controversial status of the Caspian Sea could seriously damage relations between these two countries. In addition, Azerbaijan with extreme nervousness responds to the Armenian-Iranian relations, considering them as treacherous on the part of the Islamic country.

As for Armenia, she needs normal relations with Iran, as the latter is one of the two land routes linking the country with the outer world. The Iranian route is longer but safer than the Georgian one. On the other hand, friendship with Iran is now a bit problematic because of the nuclear program. However, according to U.S. diplomats in Yerevan, the United States realizes the importance of Iran for Armenia (in blockade) and therefore regards the Armenian-Iranian relations with favour.

There is another equally important aspect in Iran’s ambition to become a regional power: Islamism. The Islamic Republic believes that she should be the advocate of Islam in the region, and no one can replace her in this issue. Supported by Saudi Arabia, Turkey also seeks dominance in the region and gradually parts with secularism, thus rivaling Tehran. However, Iran simply will not allow such a turn of events. No matter how strongly the Government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan may support the current administration of Ayatollah Khamenei and how hard it may try to persuade Tehran that it respects Islamic values, Tehran simply does not believe it and would not admit even the thought of Turkey being representative of the Muslim world. The recent story of Free Gaza, which, at large, was meant to win the affection of the Arab world and show it that Islam for Ankara is more important than a close relationship with Israel, highlighted a number of problems that Turkey has with the Arab world, despite the fact that Erdogan solemnly declared: “The Turk cannot live without the Arab”. Nevertheless, however sad it might be for Ankara, Hamas has already refused her services, stressing that it prefers to deal only with Egypt.

At first sight, Turkey is in normal relations with all the neighbors - from “brotherly” to “neutral”. But the Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance believes that Armenia, in particular, must leave the security zone around the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and give up the process of international recognition of the Armenian Genocide. The reality is that it is still too early to speak of normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations, and there are several reasons for it. There are serious internal political processes going in Turkey. The state of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has deteriorated after the scandalous resignation of major opposition member Deniz Baykal, as new leader of the Republican People’s Party Kemal Kilicdaroglu is determined, if not to win the elections next year, at least to reduce the number of deputies from the AKP. Premier Erdogan is obviously losing popularity, and in this respect improved relations with Armenia would be fatal for him. Turkish opposition, which is already unhappy with the foreign and domestic policy of Turkey, could easily dethrone the unwanted premier. However, hardly will the army intervene this time, since the Prime Minister has taken care to gain the ear of most of the military. But Turkey is a country quite unpredictable in some issues, and what will happen after the referendum on September 12 is difficult to predict.