Can Iran and Turkey force Russia and USA out of the region?

PanARMENIAN.Net - As an example to this can serve Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s latest visit to Moscow. The main objective of Netanyahu's visit to Moscow was to get the Kremlin’s approval for harsh economic sanctions to be used against Iran, including restrictions on energy trading. These measures may prove to be too painful for the Islamic Republic, 80% of whose export is oil. The second issue of discussion was the delivery of Russian missile defense systems S-300 to the Islamic Republic of Iran. So far Russian officials have claimed Russia has every right to put into practice this agreement, long concluded with Iran and designed totally for “defense purposes”.

The reaction to non-delivery of S-300 was immediate, and from the direction least expected, i.e. from Turkey. Turkey refuses to conclude a bilateral agreement with the United States on installing the anti-missile radar designed to track Iran and to replace a similar facility, previously assumed to be established in the Czech Republic. According to the British newspaper The Financial Times, Ankara demands that installation of the radar be supported by other NATO countries too.

Turkey seeks to maintain balanced relations with both America and Iran, and therefore doesn’t want the deployment of the radar to look like a two-way deal, aimed against Tehran. According to Ankara, in case the radar is placed on her territory, it must become part of the overall missile defense system of the North Atlantic Alliance, funded by NATO. Let us not forget also about the visit of Foreign Minister of Turkey to Iran, which has strengthened the strategic partnership. The Turkish-Iranian tandem is able, if not to completely force out, then at least to depress Russia and the USA in the region. And in order to achieve this, the sides are ready to do anything. As for Turkey, she is even ready to deterioration of relations with Israel.

Meanwhile, as a peacemaker and a stabilizing factor, Iran could play a definite role in the region. Hence, Iran favors opening of the Armenian-Turkish border. As Iranian Ambassador to Armenia Seyed Ali Saghaeyan noted, Iran will back up any initiative of establishing peace and stability in the region. “It is important for us that Armenia normalize relations not only with Turkey but also with Azerbaijan. Iran enjoys good relations with all the countries of the region and is ready to apply efforts for opening of the Turkish-Armenian border,” the diplomat said. Saghaeyan also touched upon the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. “Official Tehran has always supported and will support a peaceful regulation of this conflict through negotiations and within the OSCE Minsk Group. The Karabakh conflict has a long history, and the Iranian side made efforts to conclude a ceasefire in the conflict zone,” the Iranian ambassador stressed.

Regarding the possibility of disposing peacekeeping troops in the Karabakh conflict zone, the ambassador said that, given the fact that Iran shares borders with the liberated territories of Karabakh, Tehran has her own attitude towards this issue. In addition, the ambassador excluded the possibility of renewal of hostilities in the conflict zone. In fact, Iran acknowledged her having a common border with the Republic of Artsakh, which immediately caused outrage in Baku. But Azerbaijan could not and would not quarrel with Iran – the weight categories are far too different. It is impossible to threaten Tehran with oil or gas, and, a fortiori, with territorial claims to Southern Azerbaijan.

As for the possible war in the region, “It is unlikely that the US attack Iran,” Iranian Ambassador Seyed Ali Saghaeyan declared in Yerevan. “Taking into account the situation that the United States faces in Afghanistan and Iraq and the financial crisis, Washington is unlikely to decide to launch a war against Iran,” the diplomat said. However, he noted that Official Tehran is ready for any developments.

“Thirty-five times representatives of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) unexpectedly visited the nuclear facilities in Iran and got added evidence that Iran pursues only peaceful purposes in enriching uranium. During his pre-election campaign President Barack Obama repeatedly claimed he would introduce changes in the US foreign policy, but coming to power, he kept to the policy of ex-president George Bush,” said Seyed Ali Saghaeyan.

Touching upon relations with Israel, the Iranian diplomat stressed there is hardly any possibility of Israel to strike on Iran’s strategic structures. “If during the eight-year war with Saddam Hussein on power they were unable to realize their plans, they have no chance to succeed now that Iran is much stronger than ever,” the Ambassador said.

Meanwhile, USA has put up with the fact that Iran will soon have nuclear weapons. As the February 19 edition of “Makor Rishon” reports, this conclusion was reached by high-ranking diplomatic sources in Jerusalem. As stated by the Israeli Government, at the moment the United States is not ready for so-called ‘paralyzing sanctions’ against Iran. Jerusalem believes that Obama does not want to ‘close the door’ before the opportunity of negotiations with Iran, but on the other hand, Tehran's nuclear program is not among the top concerns of the American administration.

According to diplomatic sources, the USA is occupied with the much greater problem of Afghanistan and Iraq, which means that only in summer Americans can come close to resolving the problem of Tehran. At the same time, Iran continues to develop its nuclear program, and at the current stage it is unknown whether it won’t be too late to solve the problem in summer.

Let us keep in mind that next week Vice President Joe Biden is to pay an official visit to Israel. According to official data, Biden, whose relationship with the Israeli government cannot be described as excessively warm, will arrive in Israel to assure that the USA is ready to support the Jewish state in confronting the Iranian nuclear threat. However, this visit has also a second objective: to make sure that Israel does not intend to give U.S. a surprise in the form of an unexpected attack on Iran.

Note that the U.S. administration has been recently intensifying the pressure on Israel with the aim to ensure suspension of a possible military strike against Tehran’s nuclear facilities.