Turkey Would Prefer to Be Regional Leader Rather Than EU Member

The position of the Armenian community is correct. It cannot influence on the march of events but must express its viewpoint. Armenia's participation in the peacekeeping operations in Lebanon would be natural. It will raise the authority of the state and the Armenian community will feel more protected. Moreover, Armenia would receive political dividends from the West.

At that no UN resolution has been implemented so far and Resolution 1701 will have the same fate. Its implementation is unreal. It says that the Lebanese army should disarm Hezbollah but the point is that there is no Lebanese army as a matter of fact. It's too small and badly armed. The Hezbollah soldiers will just flow into the Lebanese army and the story will end. As for Turkey, is has a chance to become a leader of the Near East. With Erdogan's party coming to power the Muslim world does not perceive Turkey as an alien any more. The participation of the peacekeepers will show that Turkey is really a leader in the region, since it will be the only Muslim state to have sent contingent to Lebanon.

The Lebanese events can become significant for the region. Lebanon is a testing area where models for the Near East are being worked out. It was Lebanon where the Islamists started the struggle against other states, the U.S. first tested point attacks in Lebanon, the West carried out the "cedar revolution" via the killing of Rafik Hariri. We can draw a parallel with Georgia which is being represented as a 'signboard of exemplary democracy.' The same is happening with Iraq. On October 11, 2006 a law on the federative administration of Iraq was adopted. Practically it means that the Kurdish economy is fixed juridically. Federative Iraq is a step toward Kurdistan's independence, which will change the map of the whole region. But I should stress that Iraq and Georgia are 'reading-books' of propagandized democracy. As for Azerbaijan, being a temporal state it nevertheless becomes an Islamic one gradually. The Azeri leadership is trying to make the Islamization of the state manageable but the number of mosques is increasing. The Islamization tendency did not bypass Turkey either that is why Europe's refusal will be less painful for it now. This state would prefer to be a leader in the region rather than an EU member. By the way, ideology has undergone certain changes. Kemal Ataturk's slogan 'Towards to Europe' yielded to Recep Erdogan's slogan to 'return to the East.

Armenia is a Near Eastern state. One should not forget that present-day Armenia is a northern suburb of the Armenia that was situated in the Near East. Our foreign policy is pro-Arab and this is correct. Armenia is the only Christian state that received the status of observer in the League of Arab States (LAS). The LAS experiences tensed relations with Turkey and we can turn the situation in our favor. The Kurdish factor has a great influence of the relations between Armenia and the Arab states, specifically Syria and relations between the two states worsened because of this. The Turkish factor is strong in Syria over the Kurdish problem.

The Lebanese crisis showed that the idea of the Arab national state as a such proved inefficient. The Arab states were always defeated by Israel while non-governmental structures like Hezbollah won the opposition. The Arab states could no even work out a joint position in struggle against Israel. An Arab Islamic state can become an alternative to the idea. HAMAS can serve as an example. But this will lead to radicalization of the region and may have both positive and negative consequences. Generally, the key powers when speaking of the region mean the Near East starts in Iraq and ends in the South Caucasus including Iran and the states of the Persian Gulf. In order to achieve success in this case the U.S. and West should first of all explain to these states the essence of democracy. However the example of Iraq failed. Moreover I suppose that the Arab states will have to choose between democracy and stability, since the victory of Islamic forces in the majority of states of the region is natural.