KARABAKH CONFLICT SHOULD NOT BE TREATED AS MATHEMATICAL PROBLEM

PanARMENIAN.Net - How do you assess the current stage of the Karabakh settlement, in part, within the OSCE Minsk Group?

The current stage of the process of settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict does not differ much from the previous ones and will finish in a similar way. In short one may call the current stage "an inertly running imitation." It externally resembles the stage, which has already been named a "Paris" or "Key West" one in history. Certain specific proposals appeared at the time, the parties were discussing these, however everything finished in a way it should - futile.

In you opinion, was any progress registered as outcome of the Kocharian-Aliyev meeting?

According to the information I possess, there was no serious discussion between the Presidents in Kazan." "The parties exchanged opinions over the options already suggested. The process continues and it will finish just the same way, as the "Paris" stage.

You have mentioned of activation of the settlement process fixed during the recent 12 months. What is it conditioned by?

After Ilham Aliyev coming to power in October 2003, a natural pause has appeared in the talks. A situation has appeared that had already taken place, when after the resignation of Levon Ter-Petrosyan new Armenian President Robert Kocharian stated the line pursued in the talks by the Armenian authorities was incorrect and it was necessary to review many aspects in the negotiation process. I. Aliyev behaved the same way, stating it was necessary to start the talks from naught. This at first caused a painful response of Armenia, however talks started then and they were even called "the Prague process." That was what I exactly meant when stating in one of interviews in Azerbaijan that a new, recurrent and of course not last stage has outlined in the negotiation process. The activation is conditioned with the increase of West pressure upon Armenian and Azeri authorities and the domestic political situation in the two republics.

Earlier you stated that the Karabakh conflict can be settled no earlier than in 20-25 years. Haven't the recent meetings moved near the conflict settlement?

I do not consider that the current "Prague process" will result in a specific outcome. Our peoples were suggested various options. And they now propose a recurrent one that can be summed up as follows: try to unite two latest options - the package one with the stepwise one. On the one hand, Armenia returns 5 occupied regions around Nagorno Karabakh (Lachin and Kelbajar regions will still remain under Armenians' control). Refugees return to these regions, communication resumes between the parties to conflict. The most important issue - the NK status - will be decided in 10-15 years via a referendum. Now discussion between the parties concerns technical matters: when to hold the referendum (in 10, 15, 25 or 50 years), who will take part in it, etc. However, a general agreement is available. Why I am pessimistically predisposed? The point is that both the Presidents and our peoples are hostages of the sentiments and views already available, as well as the geopolitical situation in the region. People in Armenia are fully convinced that the Karabakh issue is in fact solved, one merely has to wait for the time when both the international community and the Azeri people themselves "ripen" to understand that fact. I.e. the fact that NK should be part of Armenia or become an independent state. Being part of Azerbaijan in any form is out of question. Thus, expecting compromises from Kocharian is not serious. As of Azerbaijan, to the contrary, the discontent over the talks and the number of war advocates to liberate Karabakh increase. However, Azeri authorities depend on the West and first of all Americans very much. The large money invested in Caspian oil prevents the West from considering the settlement of the Karabakh issue by force. I.e. Ilham Aliyev depends on the opinion of the West, the Azeri expert emphasized. Besides, Azeri authorities consider that in a year huge oil dollars will flow to Azerbaijan and the Armenian economy will be in a deplorable condition in a few years. Thus, one even does not have to fight - Armenia will fall to your feet itself. In his words, strong discontent with the Minsk Group is available in the Azeri society, as well as the hard political and economic situation in the country (Azerbaijan - editor's note). Thus Aliyev has to maneuver. Like Kocharian he does not want to resort to serious talks, as these demand considerable concessions. This is pregnant with losing popularity among one's own people. Both the authorities and the peoples are not ready to compromise today yet.

Which are possible variants of the Karabakh conflict settlement?

There have been many options of Nagorno Karabakh settlement ("common state," "stepwise resolution," "package one," etc.), however these are not the core in actual fact. One must not treat the settlement of the Karabakh conflict as solution of a mathematical problem. The fate of two - exactly two and not one - peoples is the point. The solution should be in a form that, in case of not satisfying, would not cause a mass negative response of any of the parties. Why is the current stage doomed to failure? It is based on the proposal to hold a referendum. Maybe after certain time has passed, but the holding of it. Formally, it is a quite democratic proposal. However, our societies are not democratic and one should clearly understand it. E.g. Azeri authorities at first tried to conceal the fact of the referendum itself. When they did not manage it, they tried to pretend as if there is nothing important here and it is not known what will be taking place in our region in 10-15 years. Having observed the negative response to the idea of a referendum, our FM stated there will be no referendum and it is provocation of certain forces. I.e. this crucially important issue is concealed from own people," the Azeri expert noted. On the other hand, the Karabakh conflict has to do with the mentality of both peoples. Materials are often published in Armenia, saying that authorities make the situation in Azerbaijan tense, while people do not with to fight for alien Karabakh. It is a thoroughly erroneous opinion. Authorities write much about lost lands in Armenia, however, this does not find a serious response in the hearts of Azeris, as indeed there is no serious connection with contemporary Armenia in the Azeri mentality. And there is such in case of Karabakh. The same is true concerning the Armenian identity regarding Karabakh. Thus, the settlement of the conflict should be a not traditional one. I do not see a solution of the kind at the moment. I suppose simultaneous to democratization - a real one, not a declarative one - the solution of the kind will be found. First of all, simultaneous to the strengthening of the institutions of local government bodies (municipalities) and communities. In other words, we need to get rid of soviet or eastern political system as soon as possible and transfer to western political system. Then the borders will stop playing a key role.

May the parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan result in change of domestic political atmosphere in the republic and how can it impact the Karabakh conflict settlement?

The parliamentary election in Azerbaijan may fully result in change of domestic political atmosphere in Azerbaijan. Although main events will start in Azerbaijan closer to 2008, when the recurrent presidential election will take place. Before that time the situation in Azerbaijan will follow the course of increase. During the present parliamentary election 25-30 places (out of 125) will be occupied by opposition and it will be a certain factor of change of the situation in the country. The authorities hope for the arrival of oil dollars in the country to notably improve the economic record, which will allow mitigating the tension in the society. However, the population will not evidently benefit from these oil dollars and these will settle down in pockets of a small group. A serious gap between groups of population has outlined already now and the growth of discontent is obvious. However, the process has just started. I do not expect any "orange" revolutions this year.

How would you comment on the fact that the Azerbaijani Central Electoral Commission has launched an electoral district for the population of Nagorno Karabakh? Is it possible that the NK population will participate in the election held in Azerbaijan?

The decision for the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) of Azerbaijan to launch an electoral district is an open propagandistic move. In his words, "the decision to reserve places for Azeri deputies in Nagorno Karabakh (NK) was a similar one in its time, as everyone knew and understood well that Azeris will not take part in the vote in NK. Now it is clear that Armenians will not participate. Moreover, the actions of Azeri authorities are very inconsequent. If they have announced creation of an electoral district for NK population, let them admit Armenian observers to monitor the election first. But they announced creation of districts and then denied Armenian journalists (if I am not mistaken) entry to Baku to observe the election due to them being on the opposed side. The Azeri authorities have to change many other things as well. At least they should not hamper contacts between populations, representatives of NGOs, etc. This is for the sake of peace and our peoples.