Prednestrovians Try to Win Over Armenians to Their Side

PanARMENIAN.Net - Experience shows that tendencies observed in any of the unrecognized republics very often find their continuation in conflicts with the involvement of other newly created states, unrecognized by the world community. This is why Abkhazians and Osetians are so much alarmed at the developments in Prednestrovie. Stepanakert also carefully observes the situation whereas in their case the people of Karabakh can hardly imagine a situation similar to the one in Prednestrovie. Ukrainians deliberately block the republic, considering Prednestrovians as their compatriots. (Almost half of the population of Prednestrovie are ethnic Ukrainians, having even Ukrainian passports.) If the same situation occurred in Karabakh, it would look approximately like this: Armenia would agree with Azerbaijan and would blockade Nagorno-Karabakh. Fortunately such a scenario is out of question.

However, in the case with Prednestrovie everything cannot be painted in two colors - black and white. Things are much more difficult here. There is no doubt that the decision of Kiev is dictated not only by the aspiration for normalizing relations with Kishinev but also by signals from the West. I even suppose that it is sensible to connect the decision with Vladimir Putin's announcement about the universality of Kosovo scheme. The President of Russia actually hinted at the idea that in case of recognition of Kosovo's independence by the West Moscow will consider the issue of recognizing all the established states that proclaimed sovereignty after the collapse of USSR. Analysts commenting on this announcement suppose that the Kremlin is inclined to begin with Prednestrovian Republic. In this context the last step of President Yushenko can be explained by the signals from the West as well as the wish of Kiev to show Russians that they have no less resources to influence the situation in Prednestrovie than Moscow has. In any case the conflict is not between Slavics of Prednetrovie and Ukraine but between official Kiev and Moscow.

Presidents Bagabpsh and Cocoyta have already toughly criticized Ukraine's politics. In contrast to Abkhazians and Ostetians, Karabakh leaders still refrain from making official announcements. Only some independent political scientists have made public statements on the falseness of Yushenko's actions. President of Karabakh Arkady Ghukasyan and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs have preferred the wait-and-see attitude. The same can be said about Armenian foreign ministry, which has always tried to stay far away from discussing such issues.

Meanwhile, Tiraspol is doing everything possible to involve Armenians in the discussion of the conflict. On the 6th of March the head of Armenian community of Prednestrovie Nikolay Sarkisyants became a member of the so-called "Anti-blockade Coordination Council". The Armenian community of Prednestrovie has also appealed to the foreign ministries of Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh for denouncing actions of official Kiev. According to Nikolay Sarkisyants "Armenians of Prednestrovie are going to do everything possible for the consolidation of efforts for stopping the blockade of the republic". "Armenians established in Prednestrovie more than 200 years ago. Armenians, Moldavians, Ukrainians and Russians are like one family here. Such kind of actions are aimed at splitting us", Sarkisyants says.

Tiraspol's attempts to win over Stepanakert and Yerevan to their side can be understood as easily as the reasons making Armenian and Karabakh leaders refrain from public statements on the situation in Prednestrovie. The wish to avoid troubles is quite natural if we take into account that at times problems occur between Armenia and Ukraine. As for Prednestrovians, they have much more powerful defenders than Armenians. Within the coming few months Moscow's behavior can become determinant for the future of Prednestrovian Republic.

This situation of course attracts the attention of Armenians because it clearly demonstrates the principality and consistency of those who are against the application of Kosovo model with other unrecognized republics of post-Soviet. territory. If Moscow finds the courage to reply as tough as possible to such actions and makes a decision on recognizing the independence of Prednestrovie, very interesting perspectives may open up for Karabakh. Political scientists find such a turn of events quite possible. If such a thing happens there will be an important precedent, which will be very useful for Karabakh.