Armenia should make it clear what the USA, Russia, Turkey and even the EU promise her for «model behaviour»

In fact, Armenia is offered temporary economic dividends, which in the future will simply bring to a loss of independence, not to mention the country's sovereignty.

Baku demonstrates hyper-nervousness in connection with the latest developments in the region, particularly because of the consolidation of Turkey's position after Mikhail Saakashvili's unsuccessful blitzkrieg, which "guaranteed" regional reshaping for all and retirement for Saakashvili himself. Azerbaijani political analysts and experts began to comment out exactly every word uttered by Armenia, never doubting accuracy of the received information and quoting some unauthorized Armenian mass media.

October 4, 2008

PanARMENIAN.Net - Thus, political analyst Rasim Musabekov states that "The bright prospects described in the Armenian mass media as regards the link between Armenia and Turkey to be constituted through the railway line Gyumri-Igdir, as well as the viewpoint that it can stir up competition against the railway magistral Baku-Akhalkalaki-Kars can only arouse laughter" The Kremlin, which despite the declarations of the RF Foreign Minister still gives preference to Armenia against Azerbaijan, has a hand in Musabekov's statement, which, as usual, comprises more hypothetical than factual elements. However, once again it is the standpoint of Azeri political analysts, who follow the example of Vafa Guluzade, whose amazing «revelations» have already become the talk of the town.

Fuel was added to the fire of Azerbaijani ambitions by the visits of the US Administration high-ranking officials. In our opinion Baku doesn't believe that the arrival of John Negroponte or the regular travels of Mathew Bryza to Azerbaijan are made for the mere sake of pleasing her. But for its oil, no one would ever take notice of Azerbaijan; a position we now face in Armenia. Simply after the reckless move of Georgia, Armenia was offered a chance to become a transit country for the energy carriers. Thus, US representatives' visits to our country are to be expected too, and not only after the Presidential Elections. However, all this is not so important, especially when October 15 is just around the corner.

It should be made clear what the USA, Russia, Turkey and even the EU promise Armenia for her «model behaviour». «Model behaviour» as such comprises renunciation of strategic basis of Armenian state system: handover of Nagorno Karabakh, silence in the recognition of the Armenian Genocide and absence of territorial claims against Turkey. The latter can be somehow submitted, as Armenia has neither resources nor manpower to lay claims on at least part of Western Armenia. In this particular case the matter will concern only compensation, which by the most conservative estimate will be no less than US$50 billion, and neither the current nor the future Turkish Government can pay it, even by installments.

Instead, Armenia is offered participation in such regional projects as Nabucco, Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and Kars-Akhalkalaki-Baku railroad. Besides, there is also the project of Yerevan-Batumi highway, which, by the way, is of great importance not only to Armenia but to Georgia as well. However, Leader of the Georgian Opposition Shalva Natelashvili is sure that the agreement signed between Mikhail Saakashvili and the Armenian President on building Yerevan-Batumi highway through Goderdzi pass is nothing else but "a new Roki tunnel on our soil, where complex, awful separatism is certain to break out." "And it will not take long," declared Natelashvili, obviously having in view Javakhk

In fact, Armenia is offered temporary economic dividends, which in the future will simply bring to a loss of independence, not to mention the country's sovereignty. In a word, we may face the Georgian scenario, when Turkey's territorial expansion totally wrecked the country's economy. Now Turkey is determined to do the same with Armenia, with the help of Russia of course. According to Director of Caucasus Institute Alexander Iskandaryan Baku feels extremely awkward in the light of Turkish-Russian developing relations. "We shall observe the future developments. In my opinion, what is going on in the Armenian-Turkish relations are merely opportunities, which did not exist before. But these opportunities should still be seized, they should be regained. Much depends on Yerevan-Ankara interaction and on the internal processes in Turkey, as a considerable part of the Turkish political elite and its population do not welcome the onset of these processes. So, I can conclude that resumption of Baku's bellicose rhetoric depends on two main factors: Armenia's foreign policy and Turkey's domestic affairs," Iskandaryan stated.

Thus, Baku and Tbilisi have to be reminded that on the whole aggressive war is nothing else but an armed robbery in especially large dimensions, and the punishment for it is extreme penalty.

Karine Ter-Sahakyan