Week’s debates focused on incident at NKR, Azeri armed forces contact line

PanARMENIAN.Net - Perpetration of the Azeri recon element immediately after the St. Petersburg presidential meeting is not a mere coincidence, Caucasus Institute Director Alexander Iskandaryan said. “These two events are surely interrelated and this attack is the evidence of Baku’s nervousness,” he said, adding that the sally could hardly be organized without the knowledge of the Azerbaijani leadership. “Most likely, the order was given after the presidential meeting, as a message addressed not to Armenia but to the international community,” he said. “Azerbaijan is trying to strengthen positions, using blackmail as a tool of struggle. But is not ready for a compromise that could satisfy Armenia.”

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Expert Levon Melik-Shahnazaryan said that the bloody incident near Getavan (Chaylu) village has several peculiarities, based on which conclusions should be made. “The Azerbaijani subversive group crossed the NKR border several hours after a meeting of the Russian, Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents, while Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev was not happy with the meeting's results,” Melik-Shahnazaryan told a PanARMENIAN.Net reporter. The Armenian expert believes that Azerbaijan is not ready for a dialogue based on the international right and is going to achieve NKR's occupation through blackmailing the world community, which is interested in preserving peace and stability in the South Caucasus. "It means that the sally of Azerbaijani soldiers is a sort of message to the world geopolitical centers - if they don't solve the Karabakh problem in favor of Azerbaijan, it will unleash a war, which will affect these centers' political and economic plans and opportunities,” he said. “Thus, the incident suggests two ways. First, the Armenian states should launch more active work to transfer the Karabakh conflict settlement from the political into legal field. Besides, Armenian diplomats should stir up their efforts in important international institutions. Second, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry's statement should be estimated correctly, it gives green light to Armenian soldiers and we should use this opportunity.”

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Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has left Saint Petersburg in a hurry to avoid questions about the provocation he synchronized with Medvedev’s peaceful initiative, advisor to RA Defense Minister, major general Hayk Kotanjyan said. “Such neglectful attitude to Russian President’s initiative is not a novelty. Moreover, the latest sally went contrary to Barack Obama’s call for a peaceful resolution of Karabakh conflict,” he said. He also emphasized that with international community’s indifference about Azerbaijan’s armament race, Aliyev’s revanchist calls may grow into a new war in Karabakh.

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Azerbaijan’s subversive act at the contact line was planned by Ilham Aliyev before departure for St. Petersburg, RA National Assembly Standing Commission on Financial, Credit and Budgetary Affairs Gagik Minasyan stated. “Aliyev left St. Petersburg at the time when the operation he planned was under way to avoid explanations he would have to give on the incident,” he said. “The OSCE Minsk Group should toughen position on Azerbaijan, otherwise the hysteria for a resolution of the conflict by use of force will persist. The international community should show its attitude in word and deed,” Minasyan said.

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Heritage party circulated a statement, which reads that the party considers another aggression of Azerbaijan against Artsakh not only as a unilateral violation of the ceasefire regime in the Azerbaijani-Karabakh conflict, but also as an evident preparation for a new aggression. “This is proved by the fact that on June 18 the Azerbaijani parliament adopted the bill on prolongation of the President's and parliament's powers in case of a war. The bill envisages introduction of amendments to the Law on Constitutional Court… The Azerbaijani President's urgent departure after a trilateral meeting of Sargsyan-Medvedev-Aliyev and the organized provocation should serve as a signal for the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs and international community,” the statement said.

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Kiro Manoyan, ARFD Hay Dat and Political Affairs Office Director, has said that Azerbaijan’s recent provocation aimed to affect the negotiation process and compel Armenia to alter its stance. “It’s obvious that the ongoing talks do not satisfy Azerbaijan. The incident can hardly be viewed as resumption of hostilities. However, if continued, such provocations can result in a large-scale clashes and even transform into war,” he said. Manoyan emphasized that the OSCE Minsk Group refrained from giving an adequate assessment of the incident due to economic interests and political speculations.

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Karabakh process may enter into a new stage, with military operations at the contact line, Levon Shirinyan said. “The recent tensions are conditioned by the failure of the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement,” he said.

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Expert of the Armenian Center of Political and International Studies Ruben Mehrabyan said that the incident at the contact line of the NKR and Azerbaijani armed forces was organized by high-ranking officials. Commenting on Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov’s statement that soldiers’ nerves can sometimes fail in trenches, Mehrabyan said that similar statements are beneath criticism. “This proves that chaos reigns in the Azerbaijani army,” the Armenian expert told a PanARMENIAN.Net reporter.

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Armenia has been excluded from all regional processes, according to RA former Minister of Foreign Affairs, member Armenian National Congress Alexander Arzumanyan. “No international organization or country takes Armenia into consideration. We learn from newspapers that the Karabakh issue was discussed in Ankara or will be discussed in Canada or the United States,” he said, blaming all on “illegitimate authorities”. “The incumbent authorities have no right to present Armenia. Karabakh process has hit a deadlock and the only way out is resignation of the President and conduction of pre-term elections,” he said.

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St. Petersburg presidential meeting opened a new stage in Karabakh process, said prof. Ruben Safrastyan, director RA NAS Institute of Oriental Studies. “Some agreements, more favorable for Armenia than Madrid Principles, have been probably achieved in St. Petersburg,” he told a PanARMENIAN.Net reporter. “RA President’s visit to Stepanakert the other day proves that Armenia accepts new proposals as a basis for further talks. Moreover, consideration of Chaylu incident during a meeting of CSTO Council testifies that a new round of negotiations was launched,” he said.

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To prevent military rhetoric and ceasefire violations, the international community should call things by their proper names and openly declare who was responsible for the recent incident at the line of contact between the NKR and Azerbaijani armed forces, Armenia’s Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian said during a joint news conference with his Austrian counterpart Michael Spindelegger.top diplomat said. “It’s not Armenia who threatens war. It’s not Armenia who rejects all kinds of measures to maintain the ceasefire. It’s not Armenia who refuses to withdraw snipers from the frontline,” he stated. “Statements on the recent incident in Chaylu signal as ‘yellow card’ for Azerbaijan.”