Karabakh settlement in the context of Madame Clinton’s visit to Armenia

PanARMENIAN.Net - On July 3, the mediators held a meeting with Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian. They briefed on the results of their meetings with the NKR leadership in Stepanakert. The men also discussed continuation of talks based on the results of the trilateral presidential meeting in Saint Petersburg. Minister Nalbandian reiterated that full-fledged participation of NKR in talks is essential to achieve positive results.

On the same day, the Co-chairs met with Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan to discuss the current stage of Nagorno Karabkh settlement process, including the latest version of Madrid Principles represented during the meeting between Armenian, Azerbaijani and Russian Presidents in St. Petersburg.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrived in Yerevan on July 4. At the airport she was met by Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian, RA Deputy Foreign Minister Arman Kirakosyan, U.S. Ambassador to Armenia Marie Yovanovitch, Armenian Ambassador to the U.S. Tatul Margaryan

In the evening, during a joint briefing with Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian, Madame Clinton said that the principles for the Karabakh conflict settlement remain unchanged and are based on the Helsinki Final Act: non-use of force, territorial integrity and people's right to self-determination. She also noted that normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations will bring peace, stability and prosperity to the region.

In a meeting with Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, Secretary Clinton said that it is a great honor for her to be on a visit to Armenia when the U.S. celebrates Independence Day. She thanked the Armenian President for his personal contribution to the improvement of relations with Turkey. "The U.S. is interested in Armenian-Turkish reconciliation, what, we believe, proceeds from the interests of the Armenian people as well," she said. For his part, the Armenian President thanked the U.S. government for the provided political, technical and economic support. Specifically, he marked out U.S. Presidents’ efforts for resolution of the Karabakh conflict. "Today, settlement of the conflict in accordance with the international law is the most important issue for the people of NKR," he said. President Sargsyan also expressed gratitude to Secretary Clinton and President Barack Obama for the endeavors aimed at the Armenian-Turkish normalization. "Though Turkey proved unready to establish relations with Armenia without preconditions, the U.S. Administration's stance on the issue is of keen importance for us," he said.

On July 5, Secretary Clinton laid a wreath to the Armenian Genocide Memorial in commemoration of 1.5 million of Armenians slaughtered in the Ottoman Empire in 1915-1923. She was accompanied by U.S. Ambassador to Armenia Marie Yovanovitch and Armenian Genocide Museum Institute Director Hayk Demoyan.

Member of the Republican Party of Armenia parliamentary group Karen Avagyan said that the visit of U.S. Secretary Clinton to Armenia has helped approximate the sides' positions on regional problems. “The visit provided with another opportunity to discuss the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement and Karabakh conflict settlement,” Avagyan told a PanARMENIAN.Net reporter. "I would like to mark out Clinton's visit to the Armenian Genocide Memorial, what is another step towards recognition of the historical justice," Avagyan said.

The visit of U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to the South Caucasus should be viewed in the context of ‘reset’ of U.S.-Russia relations, according to Alexander Iskandaryan, director of Caucasus Institute. “Clinton had to clarify priorities with Ukraine’s President Viktor Yanukovych. In Georgia, she assured of U.S. support to Saakashvili administration. In Armenia and Azerbaijan, she focused on Karabakh conflict,” Iskandaryan told a PanARMENIAN.Net reporter. “With tough statements in Yerevan and especially in Baku, the U.S. high-ranking official signaled that the process should take place in the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group,” he said, adding that “the U.S. knows that Karabakh conflict will hardly be solved in the near future.”

Heritage party attaches importance to the visit of U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s visit to Armenia in the light of three important points, head of Heritage parliamentary group said. “First, during her tour, Secretary Clinton did not visit Turkey, thus showing that she doesn’t view this country as a part of Eastern Europe. Second, her statement that progress in Armenian-Turkish relations depends on Turkey clearly indicates Ankara will bear responsibility for the possible failure of the process. Third, with attending Tsitsernakaberd memorial complex she expressed the U.S. indignation over Turkey’s regional policy,” Stepan Safaryan told a news conference in Yerevan on July 6. “Besides, Mrs. Clinton reiterated that the Nagorno Karabakh, the conflict should be resolved through peaceful means, signaling Azerbaijan of inadmissibility of any military acts,” he said.

Director of the Armenian Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS), Richard Giragosian, said that Armenia should be prepared for unexpected war. “Armenia should be ready for the worst scenario. Azerbaijan will keep testing the patience of the Armenian side,” he said. “Sudden resumption of hostilities is more dangerous that official declaration of war by Azerbaijan. The situation may go beyond control as result of continuous Azeri provocations.”

Head of the Republican Party of Armenia parliamentary group Galust Sahakyan said that for Armenia, the status of Nagorno Karabakh is the key issue in talks. “Nagorno Karabakh can never be a part of Azerbaijan. The other issues are secondary,” he said. “Should Azerbaijan be ready for war, it would unleash hostilities immediately. However, Baku understands that war is not a solution while Armenia will never agree to unilateral concessions.” Asked to comment on the recent incident at the contact line, Sahakyan said that proper condemnation by the international community could speed up the settlement process.

According another RPA member, Gagik Melikyan, resumption of hostilities in the Nagorno Karabakh conflict zone is unlikely, according to, member of the Republican Party of Armenia. “I do not see any threat of war,” he told journalists. As to possibility of recognition of the NKR people’s right to self-determination by the international community, Melikyan said, “Whether the international community recognizes Artsakh or not, it’s sovereign country. The Artsakh Republic has been developing as a democratic state for 20 years already.”

Head of the Science Department of the Caucasus Institute, political analyst Sergey Minasyan said that Azerbaijan understands that the time works against it, while Armenia-NKR-Azerbaijan triangle prevents Baku from changing the status quo. “Baku is trying to oppose the triangle through a new format of the “Azerbaijani community of Nagorno Karabakh,” Minasyan said. “Although, it does not mean that Karabakh will become a party to negotiations in the near future, certain changes are already observed. The recent statement issued by the Presidents of the OSCE Minsk Group’s Co-Chair countries de-facto mentions about the people of NKR for the first time ever. The statement is more advantageous for Armenia. However, the best thing to do now is to continue talks.”

Caucasus Institute Director Alexander Iskandaryan also agreed that U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s statement that Nagorno Karabakh conflict should be resolved taking into account of people of NKR, Armenia and Azerbaijan does not mean that U.S. agrees to re-engagement of Artsakh in negotiations. “There will be no serious progress during the current year, as positions of the sides are polar opposites,” Iskandaryan said. Asked whether NATO peacekeeping forces may be stationed in Karabakh in the near future, he said it’s impossible.

Armenian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Tigran Balayan said that the bellicose statements by the Azerbaijani leadership are continuation of Azerbaijan’s June 18 subversive attack near Chaylu settlement. “These statements are aimed to frustrate the negotiation process. The Azerbaijani leadership is pulling the wool over its people’s eyes, distorting the essence of talks on the Karabakh conflict, in an attempt to recede from the agreements reached in Saint Petersburg,” Balayan said.

There will be no progress in Karabakh talks at least till September, according to director of RA NAS Institute of Oriental Studies, prof. Ruben Safrastyan. “The proposals put forth during the recent St. Petersburg Sargsyan-Aliyev-Medvedev meeting are now under discussion and seem to be acceptable for both sides,” he said. He also noted that the forthcoming visit of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to Armenia in September will make Azerbaijan observe the ceasefire. Commenting on U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s visit to the region and specifically her attendance of the Armenian Genocide Memorial, prof. Safrastyan said it was an open message to Turkey that the U.S. may recognize the Genocide one day. “The visit also aimed to prevent Azerbaijan from any military acts against Karabakh,” he added. As to Armenian-Turkish process, prof. Safrastyan said that nothing will change until parliamentary election in Turkey next year. He also pointed out to anti-Christian attitudes growing in Turkey. “It’s not easy to be an Armenian in Turkey. It can’t be ruled out that Turkish authorities may resort to violence against the Armenian population again,” he said, adding that Armenians are hostages to Turkish authorities, especially in Istanbul.

Head of the Analytical Center for Globalization and Regional Cooperation Stepan Grigoryan said that the Armenian leadership should in general terms agree to the statement of the Presidents of the OSCE Minsk Group’s Co-Chair countries. Prior to drafting the final peace agreement, it is necessary that all the sides to the conflict, including NKR, sign the Madrid Principles, Grigoryan said. “Armenia should get guarantees from all the OSCE Minsk Group’s countries, including Turkey, that if Azerbaijan does not agree even with one provision of the agreement, these countries will unilaterally recognize NKR’s independence.

On July 8, the RA Foreign Ministry hosted a meeting of government officials in charge of foreign affairs and international cooperation to clarify priorities in Armenia’s foreign policy. Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian briefed the participants on basic directions of the Armenian foreign policy, attaching importance to coordination of international cooperation.