Levon Melik-Shahnazaryan:

Kocharian TV Interview Confused Azerbaijan

PanARMENIAN.Net - The TV interview of Armenian President Robert Kocharian became a hallmark event, especially after the Rambouillet meeting. During the past month Azeri politicians lead by President Ilham Aliyev stated anything: Armenia is afraid, Azerbaijan will launch a war and will return territories. It looks like the speech of the Armenian leader dotted his «i's» and crossed his «t's». Political scientist, international law specialist Levon Melik-Shahnazaryan comments on the current state of affairs in relations between the parties to conflict at the instance of PanARMENIAN.Net.
Can Armenian President's speech be considered a response to azeri party's statements and which conclusions will Azerbaijan arrive at after the clear explanation of the situation by him?

Indirectly it may be so. Of course, the President spoke not only about it, however, on the other hand, not responding to permanent militant statements of Azeri officials was not possible any more. I suppose Robert Kocharian's response was full of sober assessment of the actual state of affairs, dignity and pride for his country.

On the day following Kocharian's news conference I looked through Azeri largest websites and, frankly spoken, I got convinced that the Azerbaijani society is a bit confused. I did not find a single serious answer or comment on Azeri websites. To all appearance, Azerbaijan for the first time received strict response to its calls for military settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. After all, there are competent people in Azerbaijan, who perfectly know that the next war may end not only in defeat but liquidation of the state called Azerbaijan.

Is that what US Ambassador to Azerbaijan Reno Harnish meant, when he said «war will open way to tragedies in the Caucasus»?

Any war is a humanitarian tragedy and it would have been ideal, if problems between peoples and states were solved over a cup of tea. However, if hostilities resume, I assure you, there will be no Armenia's guilt in it. As of statements of US Ambassador as a representative of a country co-chairing the OSCE MG, it would be desirable that the US pay more attention to the legal aspect of the Nagorno Karabakh issue and not frighten with a war.

In one of his latest interviews former President of Azerbaijan Ayaz Mutalibov was discontent with the course of the talks and Azerbaijan's conduct. What do you think, whose viewpoint does he represent - his one or also that of someone else?

Ayaz Mutalibov never had his own opinion - maybe except a period of directorship at Baku Plant of Air-Conditioners (80s). Having become First Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party fo Azerbaijan by means of the Soviet Army, Mutalibov at first fully obeyed Baku town major V. Buniyatov, then to the People's Front of Azerbaijan. Now he voices interests of those, who have sheltered him.

As of the format of the talks, I believe it is not a bad one. Maybe it would be better to involve Iran in the peacemaking activities in the region. It is especially topical taking into account the beginning confrontation between Europe and the Islamic world.

The neighboring republic speaks very much about oil, considering it a panacea for any misfortune. However, where there is oil, there is war. What is your opinion, does not Azerbaijan rely on oil dollars too much?

Robert Kocharian answered that question to a certain degree: «Having oil does not mean having effective economy and battle-worthy army. Liking these two issues directly is not productive. The contrary is even true, one can say that the oil factor often demoralizes the economy in the light of corruption and forming a clan system.»

I will add that oil dollars Azerbaijan hopes for are accumulated in the pockets of the Aliyev clan and another dozen of oil tycoons. The money does not in fact influence the social conditions of Azerbaijan's citizens. Some regions of Azerbaijan are deprived of regular energy supplies even today. The cause is preposterous - there is lack of residual fuel oil…

On the other hand, the Armenian political scientist is sure, the quality of education and intellectual level in Azerbaijan are so low, that the military equipment and communications facilities bought are turned into common scrap metal. We were able to observe it in 1992-94 and we see it now. Thus, murderer Ramil Safarov is recognizes intellectually defective in Budapest. If I am not mistaken the second Azeri cadet suffers from amnesia. Ilham Aliyev realizes that Azerbaijan's hopes for solving the conflict by force have no future. Economy has nothing to do with it.

Not unknown Akif Nagi stated that 60% of residents of Azerbaijan want war…

I doubt that even inside the Karabakh Liberation Organization (KLO) itself the number of those, who want or work for settlement of the issue by force will amount 60%. Demoniac Nagi believes he is inspiring his compatriots that way. Percentage of those supporting resumption of hostilities in Nagorno Karabakh is paltry. I did not hold sociological surveys, however I believe there are less than 5%. However, the Armenian people are able to unite and solve national issues jointly. We observed how much Azerbaijan is ready to such problems in 1992-94.
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