Resumption of hostilities in Nagorno Karabakh possible but it won't be large-scale operation

PanARMENIAN.Net - Resumption of hostilities in Nagorno Karabakh is possible, Mikhail Alexandrov, head of the Caucasus department at the Institute of CIS Studies, said in an interview with PanARMENIAN.Net



"Although, I don't think it will be a large-scale operation. Azerbaijan will make local attempts Ilham Aliyev needs for his election campaign. Azerbaijan will never succeed in real war and will have to retreat. Aliyev just has to show that he thinks about and does soothing for resolution of the problem; otherwise he will be accused of ceding Karabakh," he said.

 

"Nevertheless, resolution of the Nagonro Karabakh conflict is unlikely in the near future. Armenia will never make fundamental concession in the issue. Armenians should put up with the fact that there will be no progress for a long time. The world is experiencing global processes caused by the economic crisis which will probably entail U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and decline of NATO. These processes will lead to shift in geopolitical balance in the region, the expert noted.



As to the format of talks, no one except for Baku wants to replace the OSCE Minsk Group. "Transfer of the issue to another instance will change nothing," he said.



"Ilham Aliyev seems to be irritated at Serzh Sargsyan's victory in the presidential election. Western countries have obviously assured Aliyev that with Ter-Petrossian coming to power in Armenia, the Karabakh problem will be resolved in favor of Azerbaijan. However, it didn't happen, so much the better."

 

"It's worth mentioning that Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline works as a constraint for Baku to think well before flying to arms. Military operations will offer Armenia the right to strike communications and the West is aware of this," he added.



Asked whether the OSCE MG replacement will affect the Karabakh conflict settlement, Alexandrov said, "Shift in the format will do no good. All these novelties originate from Georgia. Neither of the sides in Karabakh conflict with exception for official Baku wants to change the operating format. Transfer of the problem to another instance will not help resolution."

Full text of the interview