Turkey needs consolidation of political and economic ties with her northern neighbour

PanARMENIAN.Net - As usual, international visits are paid by the Prime-Minister, but President Abdullah Gul carries out rather an active international policy too. Possibly, the reason is that current Turkish President long occupied the position of the country's foreign minister.

In the light of changing geopolitical situation the visit of Abdullah Gul to Moscow is of great significance. Turkey needs consolidation of political and economic ties with her northern neighbour, which is also on allied terms with Armenia. Ankara realizes it best that neither regulation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict nor normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations is possible without Russia. Though hardly anything can Moscow do in relation to the Armenian-Turkish relations, it is only for the time being. In his interview to the Russian program "Vesti" the President of Turkey underlined Russia's key role in peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. "Turkey hails the trilateral meeting of Moscow between the Russian, Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents in December 2008, at the end of which a declaration was signed on peaceful resolution of the conflict. We consider that Russia, as the OSCE Minsk Group Co-chair on Nagorno Karabakh, has a key role in this matter," Gul said.

In the words of the Turkish President, Ankara has long been seeking ways to normalize relations with neighboring Armenia and has seized every opportunity of a dialogue. "The World Cup qualifier between our teams offered us a wonderful opportunity. I paid a visit to Yerevan then and watched the match with my Armenian counterpart. After the match we had an excellent and effective meeting with President Sargsyan. I am happy that the dialogue we opened in Yerevan is going on," Gul noted.

In this connection it should be noted that any step by Ankara towards normalization of relations with Armenia is perceived rather nervously by Azerbaijan, and the visit to Moscow was not an exception. Baku won't understand that brotherhood is good but personal interests are more important. And if today Ankara needs intimacy with Armenia, she can easily leave Azerbaijan aside. This is what we are gradually coming to, and various statements of Azeri political scientists on the conduct of Turkish officials, as well as the Turkish diplomats' promises that Ankara will never leave Baku face to face with the Karabakh issue pursue one goal - to mentally prepare the Azeri people that Turkey «swindled» them not only in the Karabakh issue but also in transportation of energy carriers. And for Baku it is much more serious than simply politics.

Another issue to be discussed in Moscow is the Caucasus Platform of Stability and Cooperation posed by Turkish Prime-Minister Erdogan. However, its implementation looks rather vague because of Iran's non-participation in it. Moreover, there are rumours that Iran might put forth a similar proposal too.

The economic, or to be more precise, the energy constituent is most significant in Moscow meetings. As Gul states, energy carriers purchase accounts for the considerable part of commodity circulation of Turkey and Russia: 2/3 of natural gas and 1/3 of oil Turkey imports from Russia. Most likely, Moscow meetings will also dwell on the project "Blue stream-2" that would allow southerly delivery of the Russian gas through Turkey. First and foremost this means Turkey may decline from the project Nabucco if the transit from Russia is more profitable than, say from Azerbaijan or Turkmenistan. Remember that the pipeline "Blue stream" was built in the shortest possible time and functions successfully, contrary to the expectations of some skeptics who believed it was impossible to transport gas through the seabed of the Black Sea. It was especially thanks to the "Blue stream" that Turkey suffered slightest losses during the "gas war" between Russia and Ukraine. As for the delivery of gas from Russia to Turkey, in 2009 it will probably amount to 25.5 billion cubic meters, i.e. 1.7 billion cubic meters more than in 2008. Most likely RF will also take part in the construction of Turkish atomic power plants, which has been under discussion still since last year.

Turkish President's visit to RF is somewhat directed against the USA and Israel, especially after Erdogan's 'trick' in Davos. The new administration of the White House is too busy with the economic crisis to listen to Turkey's «threats» about cooling US-Turkish relations. Roughly speaking, Barak Obama has neither time nor the nerves to deal with it. He is trying to save the USA from the crisis, withdraw part of his troops from Iraq and come to an agreement with Moscow. Against this background Turkish statements on the «undesirability and inadmissibility» of recognition of the Armenian Genocide by the US Congress simply look naïve. It's worth mentioning that the RF State Duma recognized the Armenian Genocide still in 1995 but Russian-Turkish relations did not suffer a bit, similar to the French-Turkish relations. The only difference is that Bush Administration was rather vulnerable and the Turkish Government seized the opportunity.