Middle East faces a new war, or rather, a third intifada

PanARMENIAN.Net - In fact, this problem has no solution, like the Karabakh problem, and therefore it is more appropriate to compare Karabakh with Palestine rather than with Kosovo. However, there lies a mistake in this comparison: converting itself into the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), Palestine never established itself as a state. On the whole, comparing conflicts is a dangerous business and you may always get quite different results, like in the case of comparing the Karabakh and Palestinian conflicts. But let us dwell on the deteriorating US-Israeli relations. To put it mildly, the Obama Administration does not treat well its sole ally in the Middle East, seeking closer relations with the Arab world. Turkey can no longer be considered a very reliable ally, and if Washington treats Israel the way she is going to, very soon the U.S. will have to make room in the Arab world.

In response to loud statements from the White House, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that construction of houses would continue in East Jerusalem, as it had continued for the last 42 years. “No steps back! All Israeli governments have followed this course since 1967,” Netanyahu said. Israeli Ambassador to Washington, Michael Oren called this the worst crisis since 1975.

As Italian newspaper La Repubblica reports, Netanyahu declared that Israel’s population finds it necessary to leave the “annexed” Palestinian territories as part of Israeli territory under any peace agreements. The Palestinian leadership, for its part, stated that under the present circumstances it is useless to resume negotiations until Israel changes her position. But, with support from pro-Israeli U.S. lobby, Netanyahu seems firmly determined to go ahead.

U.S. puts forward four requirements that will help Israel to mend relations with Washington. The first item listed is the give-up of plans to construct settler houses. The Israelis must also show “good will” to the Palestinians, releasing a great number of Palestinian prisoners. Besides, U.S. urges Israel to include in the agenda of future negotiations with the Palestinians all key aspects of the peace process, including issues of borders, refugees, Jewish settlements and water resources. And, finally, the White House is eager to know why the announcement of new housing in East Jerusalem quarter of Ramat Shlomo coincided with U.S. Vice President Joe Biden’s visit to the region. The other day Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared about his intention to conduct such an investigation and form a special commission for that purpose. But intention is one thing, actions are another and in this regard Netanyahu is unlikely to keep his promise. In response, the U.S. has already taken the first step: the visit of George Mitchell, State Department Special Envoy for the Middle East is delayed.

However, it should be acknowledged that it was Washington’s policy of over the past 40 years that kept the State of Palestine in the form of a UN resolution of 1948. For all these years the Jewish lobby in the U.S. has worked actively to achieve withdrawal of troops and other threats from Israel, and its attempts have been a success on the whole. However, Barack Obama has decided to, at any cost, regulate the Israeli-Palestinian relations, irrespective of the price to be paid. Whether he will succeed or not is a secondary question. Most likely, nothing will come of it: too strong is pro-Israeli disposition in the U.S. Congress. The only thing that Obama will be able to do this year is to stave off the “rage” of Turkey, once again avoiding calling ‘genocide’ the massacre of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire back in 1915. But how long can the White House maneuver between imaginary and real allies? If Obama alienates Israel, the consequences will be more disastrous for the United States than deterioration of relations with Turkey. The White House and the Department of State know it well. Most likely, “outcries” will remain outcries; Israel will continue building new settlements and the Palestinians will keep on throwing stones or firing at them. Only God knows how long the armed history of the Middle East will last. No Middle East quartet is able to settle the conflict between Jews and Palestinians, like the OSCE Minsk Group is unable to regulate the Karabakh problem.

As for the operation Cast Lead in the Gaza Strip, the role of international community consists only in “condemning”. So it was at the time of capture of the Suez Canal by the Israelis; so it will be in future, unfortunately.