Experience of one conflict settlement never fits another

PanARMENIAN.Net - In 2001, as today, they spoke of the unwillingness of Armenian and Azerbaijani societies to compromise and the inability of the parties to show political will in resolving the Karabakh conflict. And, as today, no one then tried to listen to the principal party concerned - the people and authorities of Nagorno-Karabakh. It is quite likely that absence of NKR in the reconciliation process is the very obstacle preventing the parties from an agreement. Moreover, no one now thinks about a real peace treaty: the conflicting parties are only concerned to lose as little as possible, even if it presupposes getting nothing.

Speaking about the parties’ unreadiness and confidence-building efforts, which, in fact, have never been made, it should be noted that now more than ever the Armenian and Azerbaijani societies are far from an agreement. The rapidly spreading anti-Armenian propaganda of Baku may lead to the rise of a similar reaction in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. Under the current circumstances the OSCE Minsk Group, as chief mediator and peacemaker, unfortunately limits itself to calls for restraint. There is no denying that all this time the OSCE Minsk Group has been able to do though one but very important thing – it has ensured prevention of war. Nevertheless, Baku demands the impossible from the OSCE, and from the entire international community: to give back the NKR security zone territories and return Azerbaijani refugees to their residences. For some reason no one remembers about the half a million Armenian refugees from Azerbaijan. Only once, a few years ago, speaking at a press conference in Yerevan Bernard Fassier said that when the co-chairs speak of the return of refugees, they mean both of the sides. Fassier’s words caused outrage in Azerbaijan and, unfortunately, everyone thus forgot about the Armenian refugees.

Currently, however, if the co-chairs are truly interested in settlement of the conflict, they have to do a little more than prevention of war. International practice shows that experience of one conflict settlement never fits another. This is a fact that must be kept in mind and followed as long as possible. The Cyprus issue, relations between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, not to mention the Israeli-Palestinian conflict cannot be applied to Nagorno-Karabakh. Deferred conflicts are dangerous in that it’s difficult to predict the time of their transition into a hot phase. Any step of the Armenian side that won’t be “approved” by Azerbaijan may provoke a war. Unfortunately, the world community is unable, or perhaps, reluctant to say to Ilham Aliyev that he is playing with fire. Or perhaps it says, otherwise Aliyev would have long gone to war. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan is hastily arming itself, buying everything: defensive and offensive weapons. The question is when these weapons will fire, and who they will be pointed at...