Azerbaijan will lose petrodollars in case of new war, Russian expert says

PanARMENIAN.Net - Director of Center of Military Forecasting Anatoliy Tsyganok said that Azerbaijan adopted its military doctrine in 2010, which Baku believes will help resolve the Nagorno Karabakh problem.

“However, in reality Baku faces several problems – Caspian Sea, Karabakh, relations with Iran, the choice between Russia and the U.S. The doctrine authors suppose that Armenia is the main threat to the country, but the situation is slightly different,” Tsyganok told a PanARMENIAN.Net reporter.

According to him, Baku will be have to decide on the destiny of Gabala radar station in 2011. “The term of agreement with Russia expires in 2012 and Azerbaijan should make a decision on it. Possibly, the radar station will be exploited jointly with the U.S. and Russia. However, it should be noted that Russia has stations of much greater capacity than Gabala radar station and Moscow does not need it,” said Tsyganok.

As for resumption of hostilities in Karabakh, Azerbaijan, most likely, will come off a loser, the Russian expert said. “Iran will not assist, it has clearly indicated this. The OSCE Minsk Group’s co-chair countries are also against the war. Baku should conceive that its oil spigot will be shut off in such case, while Azerbaijan will be left destitute,” he said.