Armenia is under the pressure of international projects

PanARMENIAN.Net - It is natural that the weaker the country, the easier it is to prevail upon it, and Armenia, alas, cannot yet pretend to the role of a strong state in the South Caucasus. Sure, in contrast to her neighbors, Armenia is stable and predictable, and in our restless region it is sometimes valued considerably higher than hydrocarbon reserves. Not without purpose do the talks on Nabucco quietly come to naught after the Iranian events, just like the project of South Stream. No one will be discussing any project until relative stability is established in the region. And here, strange as it is, comes to the fore Armenia, a country that can become a bridge between the West and Iran, between the West and Russia not in words but in deed. Georgia cannot play this role because of her unpredictability and, to put it mildly, the indistinctness of her foreign and home policy.

Nor is Azerbaijan fit for this role - it can only set conditions in the energy sphere and come out in one bond with Turkey and Israel. The visit of Shimon Peres can serve as confirmation to it. Quite possibly Peres goes to Baku to restore the somewhat cracked relations with Turkey after the operation "Cast Lead".

Remains Armenia, for whom launch of communications can become a real breakthrough into the world. The only matter is the price and whether Yerevan is ready to pay that price. At stake are the resolution of Karabakh conflict with minimum losses for Azerbaijan in exchange for the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border, and perhaps the Check Point "Upper Lars".

It is also nonrandom that exactly this week Yerevan welcomed the International conference "Armenia at the Crossroads of Communications", organized by the Russian Institute of Eurasian Studies. In the words of the participants, thanks to her balanced policy Armenia very successfully cooperates with the CIS countries in military-political, commercial, economic and humanitarian aspects. And in this sense it is important to increase the level of participation of Armenia in current and upcoming international projects within the framework of transport, energy and other strategic corridors. At the same time, participants of the conference condemn irresponsible manipulation with the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and with the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations.

According to Richard Giragosian, Director of the Armenian Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS), Armenia is a key country for the region. "The USA, Europe and Russia desire to see Armenia weak, but stable. Now Armenia can become both weak and unstable. We have developed serious strategic relations with Russia, but it is necessary that these relations be balanced, and not vassal. Russia has always been and will be nearer to Armenia than to the USA or Europe; however, she should balance her position on Armenia," said Giragosian.

That Armenia is now intensely "coaxed" is evident by the naked eye. It is, so to say, the carrot, while in the role of the stick is the Azerbaijani-Turkish threat or the attempt to repeat the Iranian scenario, which this time will work in Yerevan much better than on March 1, 2008.

On June 26 on the Ionian Island of Corfu will be opened the informal summit of OSCE foreign ministers, on which several issues might be solved. But since the summit is dedicated to security issues, it is assumed that the meetings of the Foreign Ministers of Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan will be in different formats. After the summit it will be possible to make some conclusions about the expected changes in the region, which will be fixed, most likely, at the OSCE annual summit in the winter of 2009. However, it may happen even earlier; everything depends on the course of events in Iran…

Karine Ter-Sahakyan