Kosovo independence encourages post-soviet formations

PanARMENIAN.Net - "Azeri leaders have reiterated readiness to restore the territorial integrity of their country by any means, including the use of force. According to surveys, about 60 per cent of the population share this opinion," said Sergei Markedonov, the head of the interethnic relations department at Moscow's Institute of Political and Military Analysis.



"Ilham Aliyev said his country is ready to fight to a successful end. Although it would be wrong to assert that Baku is ready for incursion in fortified Karabakh. Azerbaijan is facing presidential election in autumn. Victims and casualties can boomerang against the political elite. We should understand that patriotic rhetoric and real action are different things. In this respect, existence of a "protocol of Baku's wise men" on offensive against Karabakh in view of domestic crisis in Armenia seems rather doubtful," he said.



"Who is to blame for ceasefire violations at the line of contact? The Armenian and Azeri publics are turned on. It's specifically vivid in Azerbaijan, which has not resigned itself to the defeat of 1994 so far. The popularity of revenge grows and each spark may cause great fire," he said.



"Under the circumstances, proclamation of Kosovo's independence can provoke conflict but not promote peace. However, if the factor of force has become the major in Balkans, the same may happen in the South Caucasus where traditions of political violence has struck roots as deeply as in Europe," Mr Markedonov resumed, Politcom.ru reports.