WikiLeaks: Kocharyan bides time for return to power

PanARMENIAN.Net - WikiLeaks whistle blowing website has published another stack of U.S. Department of State cables classified by deputy head of U.S. diplomatic mission in Armenia Joseph Pennington after meeting with Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) faction secretary Samvel Nikoyan.

According to reports dated February 18, 2009, Nikoyan confided February 18 that political intrigues aimed at unseating Prime Minister Tigran Sargsian have dropped off from their peak in December. Nikoyan said that Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan had gone to see ex-President Robert Kocharyan at some point after the December 26 National Assembly tax legislation vote in which ruling coalition partners Prosperous Armenia and Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) had openly broken with President Sargyian's Republican Party to vote against the government-sponsored legislation. Prosperous Armenia leader Gagik Tsarukyan and some ARF parliamentarians had vigorously criticized the legislation, which pits the economic interests of various well-connected business oligarchs against each other.

Nikoyan said Sargsian told Kocharian, “you can be prime minister if you want, but you'll have to bring a new president too.” The clear implication was that Sargsyan would not tolerate Kocharyan's continued political manoeuvring against Sargsyan's government, and to continue sponsoring these political proxy wars would mean a full-scale confrontation.

As Pennington cables say, “we consider Nikoyan a fairly frank and authoritative source on internal Republican Party matters. He is very much Serzh Sargsyan's man.”

Nikoyan volunteered his assessment that if Kocharyan truly set his mind to oust the Prime Minister and take his place, Kocharyan would be able to rally enough votes in the National Assembly to win a no-confidence measure, despite President Sargsyan's opposition. However, it seems that Kocharyan is not disposed, at present, to provoke open political warfare with his former protege Serzh Sargsyan over it.

“Our sense is that Nikoyan's version of events is corroborated by experience; breathless rumors of Tigran Sargsyan's imminent ouster have indeed thinned in the past few weeks. The political rumor mill was abuzz in January with ubiquitous gossip about Prosperous Armenia leader Gagik Tsarukyan's well-televised foreign travel and other indications and rumors that Tsarukyan would shortly take over as Prime Minister. Nikoyan himself had pointedly not dismissed the possibility a mere two weeks ago, when we had sceptically questioned whether anyone seriously thought the unlettered former wrestler could be named PM. The fact that President Sargsyan headlined the Prosperous Armenia party congress February 12 with a landmark speech -- the major points of which were subsequently parroted back by Tsarukyan -- shows that the President has, for now at least, made the point that Prosperous Armenia remains loyal to him.

If true, it is very interesting that Sargsyan directly confronted Kocharyan on his political machinations and that Kocharyan backed off. However, it is also a potentially worrisome sign of how difficult the relations between the two may have become. We suspect that Kocharyan will only bide his time, perhaps wait until the coming economic/financial crisis has ripened to the detriment of the two Sargsyans' popularity ratings, and then perhaps make a more decisive move to return to power in some capacity,” the cables said.

At September 6, 2011 news conference in Yerevan, RPA faction secretary Galust Sahakyan pointed out complete absence of differences between current President Sargsyan and ex-President Kocharyan. “These are people who’ve been together through a war. Such people can’t possibly have contradictions,” the parliamentarian stressed.