European Public Opinion Not Pro-Armenian but Anti-Turkish

Formally the Minsk process was not stopped. The OSCE MG is a format created for contribution to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement. But since 2001 it has been frozen.

Recently attempts to activate the work of the OSCE Minsk Group can be observed. The latest visit of the Co-chairs is a proof. However I do not think that quick resolution of the conflict is possible. Unfortunately the positions of the sides are rather far away from each other. Thus, it's senseless to expect a final resolution during the coming year or two. However the energy essential for activation of the Minsk process is being accumulated and this can lead to deepening of useful contacts between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Thus, a dialogue between the sides was resumed. However it does not mean a quick resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. Anyway, talks are better than their complete absence.

Leaving aside the moral aspect of the issue, politically Turkey's reaction to the adoption of the French bill penalizing the Armenian Genocidedenial is adequate. The French parliamentarians were guided by public opinion, which is not pro-Armenian but anti-Turkish. The point is that France is against Turkey's accession to the EU, against enlargement, against the European Constitution and it's not alone in the opinion. Europe will not be able to swallow an Islamic state with 80-million population. Turkey has weak trumps in this game. Experiencing big problems with Article 301 of the Penal Code it speaks of freedom of speech. I think that a chain reaction may take place and some other European states may pass a similar law. But I would like to repeat, the point is not Armenians but Turks.

A 'spy war' is over by the Russian-Georgian problems remained. Permanent crisis between the two states tends to increase. Russia has no methods of influence of the Georgian side any more. What other economic sanctions can be applied? Russia can block the gas delivery. But gas in Georgia is mostly consumed by Russian companies engaged in electricity processing. Russia can close some secondary ports in the Black Sea. And nothing else will remain. Anyway, there will be no war.

Georgian wine and mineral water is already being supplied to the Russian market with other labels via third states. The same is happening with transfers. Suppose that a Georgian gastarbeiter will lose some 0.5% transferring money from Russia but he will transfer this money by any means even via Australia. Sanctions like the Russian ones do not work in the modern world. There is no Moscow-Tbilisi train but there are Moscow-Baku and Baku-Tbilisi routes. Thus, Russia seems to have beaten itself.

The Kars-Akhalkalaki-Baku project will be implemented since it's first of all a political project. The start will resemble the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan launching. First it was politics and then, after Kazakhstan's joining, it became economically respectable. The same will be with the railway. It will be built sooner or later.