Kosovo phantom hovering over Caucasus

Russia's role is weakening. Unlike the United States, Moscow doesn't render financial assistance to NKR. Satisfied with contacts with Armenia, Russia doesn't demonstrate any intention to engage Nagorno Karabakh as a full-fledged participant in the talks. After proclamation of Kosovo's independence and its recognition by a number of states, Russia outlined its stand on Abkhazia and Ossetia but prefers to avoid Nagorno Karabakh. Meanwhile, strategy should never be restricted to recognition or silence. There are lots of approaches. I should also mention that the position of official Yerevan and unrecognized Stepanakert do not always coincide. Undoubtedly, Russia needs sustainable relations with Azerbaijan. But recognition of NKR as a party in talks is recognition of political reality but not recognition of de facto state.

Official Baku's conduct should be viewed from various angles. First, it's the forthcoming presidential election. Second, Azerbaijan is trying to insinuate itself into the international community not only as an energy supplier but also as a dynamically developing state. Be attentive to notice that oil is not mentioned in ads about Azerbaijan.

As to bellicose statements, they won't stop. The Kosovo phantom is hovering over Caucasus. Recognition of the breakaway province's independence was a part of realpolitik and there is no guarantee that Karabakh will not have the same fate. So, Azerbaijan's concerns are grounded.

Russia has failed to develop a common and distinct policy in Caucasus so far. It's always late to react to processes in the South and North Caucasus. Relations with Georgia can serve as a vivid example.

Russia is interested in 'frozen conflicts'. However, conflicts are not frozen but lingering. These two notions are different. Russia supports territorial integrity but it stands against the methods this principle is being pushed forth.

As for relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan, I can say that Armenia is Russia's strategic ally while Azerbaijan is a strategic partner. With its military and economic parameters, Russia is closer to Armenia but in case of resumption of military operations our country will face a hard choice. Unfortunately, the Kosovo precedent can provoke hostilities in Karabakh.

There is some progress, what was almost impossible under Heydar Aliyev's rule. Iran has recently changed its position on Karabakh in Baku's favor and relations between the countries grew warmer. They have a number of common problems: the Caspian Sea, Southern Azerbaijan. Although, politicians know that unification of Southern and Northern Azerbaijan is unreal.

In early 1990-ies Armenia was ready to normalize relations. However, the process was uncoordinated. When the Karabakh war broke out Turkey closed the border with Armenia, thus nullifying all possibilities of reconciliation. Fearing that Armenian forces can enter Nakhijevan, Ankara has taken up the policy of late President Turgut Ozal, who said that Turkey is responsible for the Ottoman heritage. True, there are politicians in Turkey who wish to normalize relations with Armenia but the strong Azeri lobby hampers the process. I should also mention that the key problem is Nagorno Karabakh but not recognition of the Armenian Genocide.