Turkey ends its long policy dependence on Azerbaijan

PanARMENIAN.Net - The latest developments regarding Nagorno-Karabakh come as a result of the recent conflict in Georgia, which has only reactivated two important trends: a Turkish bid for regional stability and a need to prevent any outbreak of war over Nagorno-Karabakh, Richard Giragosian, a contributing analyst at Jane's Information Group, told a PanARMENIAN.Net reporter.



"This first factor, related to Turkey's new diplomatic initiative for regional security and stability, includes a new possible breakthrough in Turkish-Armenian relations, as seen by the historic visit by Turkish President Gul to Yerevan. A related development that has strengthened this chance for a breakthrough in Turkish-Armenian relations is the fact that Russia is now much more interested in supporting this process than ever before," he said.



But most significantly, Turkey has now untied and de-linked its policy toward Armenia from the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, according to him.



"This Turkish move to end its long policy dependence on Azerbaijan, in which Ankara's foreign policy options toward Armenia was hostage to Baku, should not be under-estimated and reveals a new bold move by Turkey. The blockade of Armenia has failed and Turkish foreign policy has been too hostage and tied to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, with little or no gain for Turkey. With this move, Turkey regains its options and flexibility for its foreign policy and Armenia gains a new economic opportunity, which it also needs in the wake of its critical over-dependence on Georgia as its main outlet for trade exports and energy imports," the expert said.



He said that the second trend concerns new fears of a possible outbreak of hostilities over Karabakh by Azerbaijan, because the Georgian conflict, and its subsequent Russian invasion, only magnified the need for stability and showed the danger of so-called "frozen" conflicts becoming "hot" wars very quickly. "And what is most troubling for regional security is the fact that Azerbaijan may eventually succeed in having the strongest military power in this region. And even more distressing is the fact that Azerbaijan sees a different lesson from the recent conflict in Georgia. Many leading Azerbaijani officers see that the most serious Georgian mistake was not their decision to launch a military campaign to retake South Ossetia, but rather, Georgia's strategic mistake was launching military operations before they were fully prepared or strong enough. Thus, the Azerbaijani view is that they have learned from the Georgians that it is better for them to wait until they are strong enough and ready to wage war to retake Karabakh," Mr Giragosian said.