Richard Giragosian: Genocide issue poses most serious obstacle for Turkish-Armenian reconciliation

PanARMENIAN.Net - The visit of Turkish President Gul was historic, and the significance of the visit stems from its role in marking the start of a new diplomatic initiative between Turkey and Armenia, Richard Giragosian, a contributing analyst at Jane's Information Group, told a PanARMENIAN.Net reporter.



"Moreover, the state of bilateral relations, or more precisely, the lack of relations, seems to have now assumed a new sense of urgency, as events in Georgia have only speeded up the process of moving toward the opening of the long-closed border between Turkey and Armenia and for the establishment of normal diplomatic relations between the two countries," he said.



"Improved relations between Turkey and Armenia also serves Russian interests for two reasons, first, due because of Russia's control and ownership of the Armenian energy, telecommunications and railway sectors, there is now a lucrative opportunity for Moscow to leverage their position in Armenia and use Armenia as a platform to sell electricity to eastern Turkey once the border is open, and to penetrate the Turkish market through their dominant position in Armenia. In this way, a breakthrough in Turkish-Armenian relations also offers a gain for Russia," he added.



The other reason for this new Russian interest and support is that the possible opening of the Armenian-Turkish border will help the overall Russian strategy of isolating and marginalizing Georgia, especially in the wake of the August conflict in Georgia, according to him.



He said there are also political and economic aspects of the future of Turkish-Armenian relations. "First, the opening of the border provides an important political success, as it demonstrates more than simple good intentions or political will, but offers a concrete step forward. And secondly, in terms of economics, although the gains will not be immediate, will offer the Armenians a new trade and transport route to new markets. And for Turkey, the new promise of border trade will provide the impoverished and under-developed eastern regions of Turkey with energy and trade, offering new jobs and potential prosperity."



"But the future course of Turkish-Armenian relations will face serious tests over the comings months. Most serious, of course, is the historical agenda item of the Armenian genocide, which must be dealt with in a sincere and comprehensive manner. The Armenian Genocide issue poses the most serious obstacle and challenge for both sides and it remains far from certain whether they can forge a new agreement on this divide," Mr Giragosian concluded.