Alexander Sotnichenko: there will no breakthrough in Armenia-Turkey relations

PanARMENIAN.Net - A meeting between Armenian, Turkish and Azerbaijani Presidents, if there is such, will not secure a breakthrough, according to a Russian expert.



"The declaration signed by the Armenian, Russian and Azerbaijani Presidents in Moscow on November 2, 2008 is the first-ever [since the agreement on ceasefire in 1994] document containing exact proposals," senior lecturer at Saint-Petersburg State University, expert at the Center of Oriental Studies, Ph.D. in historyAlexander Sotnichenko said.



In his opinion, such conflicts are usually resolved by a third party and mostly by use of force.



"Many in Russia and abroad think that Russia always supports Armenia but it's not so. Russia is interested in peace and stability in the South Caucasus because each regional conflict brings Russia flows of refugees, drug and weapon traffic, terrorism. South Ossetia has been the supplier of illegal alcohol to Russia until recently. Chechnya was a center for drug traffic. The war in Abkhazia resulted in huge refugee flows. Besides, any conflict in the South Caucasus blocks overland trade routes to Iran and Turkey, our allies, which also prefer a peaceful region," he said.



"While the Armenian cargo goes through Georgia, Armenia remains the third important trade partner for Turkey, which is interested in using Armenia as a transit for oil and gas from Azerbaijan and the entire Caspian region. Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan is the most expensive oil pipeline. Exporting oil through Armenia would be much cheaper. It's extremely profitable for Turkey and Europe but it damages Russia's interests because competition will increase in this case," Sotnichenko said.



Touching on the Nagorno Karabakh conflict, the expert said that Turkey and Russia, being 'engaged mediators' might find a solution but it would arouse discontent both in Armenia and Azerbaijan. "It will be more efficient if the sides in the Karabakh conflict take a habit of meeting on a neutral ground, in Iran, for example. At that Russia and Turkey should also participate in the talks," he concluded, Russkaya Liniya reports.



Some Turkish media reported last week that President Adbullah Gul is planning a meeting of Armenian, Azerbaijani and Turkish leaders in Istanbul. The information was however later refuted by the Turkish Foreign Ministry.