Armenia to have problems when 50 mln tons of oil run through BTC

PanARMENIAN.Net - Some 26 million tons of oil were pumped through Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline during the period from January to September 2008. It was mostly Azeri oil with 5-6 tons from Kazakhstan which can help secure rated capacity of 50 mln tons, a Kazakh expert said.



"Kazakhstan's export can't exceed 10 mln tons yet. However, pumping in Tengiz oil field started in October gave additional 5 mln tons per year. The situation is as follows: construction of exporting pipelines exceeded the output volume, originating struggle for re-distribution of volumes," Marat Shibutov, member of Association of frontier cooperation, told a PanARMENIAN.Net reporter.



Now, Azerbaijan should try to gain Tengiz's 10 mln tons increment for the BTC to bring the pumping volume to 40 mln tons. Otherwise the project is doomed to failure, according to him.



"As to Armenia, it will have problems when 50 mln tons of oil run through the BTC. Azerbaijan will grow stronger. At that, Europe and U.S. will appreciate an independent oil supplier. Furthermore, three of Armenia's four neighbors - Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia have common economic interests and a joint project. Deployment of international forces to guard the pipeline is not ruled out. Under the circumstances, an armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is impossible and is equal to suicide for Armenia. If Turkey decides to help Azerbaijan by attacking Armenia from the west, the results will be deplorable," Shibutov said.