Iranian gas and Iranian transit - Jack-pot in a Big Game

PanARMENIAN.Net - Gas context, in view of Iran's internal political crisis, receives international community's response, Ruben Mehrabyan, expert from Armenian Centre for Political and International Research, told a PanARMENIAN.Net correspondent. The country's unique geographical location, its way to the Caspian Sea and Persian Gulf, its huge gas reserves ranking as the second on world scale and a number of other factors make Iran a key stakeholder in the formation of Southern Energy Corridor. "Cooperation with neighboring regions through various memoranda, declarations, energy and pipeline agreements totally fit the logic of the Big Game in which Iranian gas and Iranian transit appear to be a Jack-pot," the expert said.



Iran cannot adhere to status quo conservation policy in either energy sphere or in foreign affairs. That will be impossible even if Khamenei-Ahmadinejad manage to suppress civil movement and maintain power. "Considering the economic hardships faced by the country, as well as the incompetent and populist state government mechanisms, the prospects of exporting gas are indispensable for overcoming crisis. The fact is well perceived both by the West and Russia and Iran. That is, Iran can be said not to have expressed its opinion so far. And everybody waits to hear what it will say. Dissidences in the country's top leadership are, in my view, conditioned by the extent of the country's openness which mostly depends on changes in Iran's relations with the West. Such changes will be materialized in gas export perspectives and large-scale investments in fuel-energy complex and Iran's infrastructure, as well as the introduction of new technologies of extracting and transporting carbohydrates. That's to say, the country's benefits are quite evident. So, the religious theocrats ruling the country have no grounds to complain about Iran's becoming a rogue state and shoot citizens dead in streets and squares of towns," Armenian expert said.



An open Iran is a good chance for Armenia, Mehrabyan is convinced. "Being actively involved in global political and economic processes, Iran can become accelerator of many big changes in Middle East. That may smooth very many wrinkles formed over the past decades and help large groups of population to overcome post-colonial syndromes. In addition, it will serve as a lighthouse for the West's freedom-loving policy. And last but not the least, I don't think our neighbor will really gain the freedom and justice its citizens strive for. Iran's being open is also a factor which deprives Russia of most of its energy levers. That is, it may push forward internal transformations both in Russia and on entire post-Soviet territory," he stressed.