Baku statement on EEU membership: a threat or a warning?

PanARMENIAN.Net - It is fair to note that this wasn’t the first statement of the kind: the issue of Azerbaijan’s EEU membership has been raised occasionally, however not going beyond empty words. Opinions on the country's accession to the Union vary even inside Azerbaijan.

From an economic point of view, as noted by some Azerbaijani experts, EEU membership is not really profitable. They stress, in particular, the energy sector: oil and gas make up the lion's share in Azerbaijani exports, while the Union membership suggests that the country will not be able to independently manage its resources. As an EEU member, Baku will have to coordinate importers of Azeri energy resources, as well as the pricing policy with all of the Union.

Moreover, as of 2014, the CIS countries accounted for only 10% of foreign trade turnover in Azerbaijan, while the membership is unlikely to bring positive changes to Azerbaijan.

Most of those familiar with the matter agree that the Nagorno Karabakh conflict is the main issue that could push the country into the Union.

Perhaps someday Azerbaijan may try to use the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) as a tool for the so-called "resolution" of Karabakh conflict. And current membership statements serve as warnings.

Thus, the country's EEU membership could lead to complete failure of peace talks on Karabakh, since, according to the existing opinion, Baku will join the Union only with Karabakh, which is de jure considered a part of Azerbaijan, while Armenia will have to ratify the treaty, recognizing "the territorial integrity" of Azerbaijan.

According to another version, Baku may agree to join the EEU, if Russia pledges to hand over seven Nagorno Karabakh regions, liberated from Azerbaijani occupation, to Baku. This version, however, does not seem to be realistic, as Moscow would thus spoil relations with Armenia, its only strategic partner in the South Caucasus at the moment.

Announcements on Azerbaijan’s EEU membership may turn out to be an attempt to "frighten" Armenia, especially given recent developments around the Karabakh conflict, with Azerbaijan deliberately going too far in escalating the situation.

However, as stated by Armenia's Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian, possible Azeri EEU membership has not been discussed.

Therefore, we can assume that the Azerbaijani statements were merely rhetorical and will remain so for at least 5-10 years.

On the other hand, Armenia's right of veto as a member of the Eurasian Economic Union has not been canceled.