Al-Qaeda remains a significant threat, UN says

PanARMENIAN.Net - Al-Qaeda remains a significant threat to western targets as it "continues to diversify" into increasingly self-radicalized extremist groups, despite significant damage to its "core" leadership, an authoritative new United Nations report says, according to the Guardian.

The report describes the threat posed by al-Qaeda as made up of "loosely linked affiliates", with self-radicalized terrorists influenced by an "infectious" ideology flourish.

The new report, the 14th issued by analysts working for the Security Council Committee which deals with sanctions on al-Qaeda "and associated individuals and entities", is seen as non-partisan and rigorous. It draws on intelligence inputs from all member nations of the UN and academic work.

"While the threat posed by al-Qaeda as a global terrorist organization has declined, the threat posed by its affiliates and its infectious ideas persists," it says.

One key question for analysts has been the influence of the remnant of al-Qaeda’s senior leadership based in Pakistan's restive western zones. Here the report is unequivocal, according to the Guardian.

"Al-Qaeda’s core has seen no revival of its fortunes over the past six months. A degraded senior leadership based in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region continues to issue statements, but demonstrates little ability to direct operations through centralized command and control," it says.

The current leader of al- Qaeda, the Egyptian-born Ayman al-Zawahiri, "has demonstrated little capability to unify or lead al-Qaeda affiliates," which have become "more diverse and differentiated than before, united only by a loose ideology and a commitment to terrorist violence."

Some of these affiliates are stronger than others, the report says.

"Some affiliates have been pushed back by military operations in Mali and Somalia, while others continue to pursue support by exploiting regional conflicts and grievances," it says.

Yet, the report points out, "the reality of al-Qaeda's diminished capabilities and limited appeal does not mean that the threat of al-Qaeda attacks has passed" as "individuals and cells associated with al- Qaeda and its affiliates continue to innovate with regard to targets, tactics and technology."

However, the report says, "the unsuccessful attempts of … al-Zawahiri to mediate internal conflicts between al-Qaeda and Jabhat al-Nusra (an affiliate of al-Qaida in Iraq) point to the limits of al-Zawahiri's authority."

Persistent infighting within al-Shabaab, the Somali-based extremist movement, also reveal the failure of senior al- Qaeda’s leaders attempts to overcome fitna, or division, between leaders and factions in east Africa.