Fitch affirms Armenia at 'B+'; Outlook Stable

Fitch affirms Armenia at 'B+'; Outlook Stable

PanARMENIAN.Net - Fitch Ratings has affirmed Armenia's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B+' with a Stable Outlook.

Armenia's 'B+' IDRs reflect strong per-capita income, governance and business environment indicators relative to peers, as well as a robust macroeconomic and fiscal policy framework and credible commitment to reform, underpinned by IMF support. Set against these strengths are a high share of foreign-currency denominated public debt, relatively weak external finances, and geopolitical risks, the agency said.

Accrding to Fitch, Armenia will be adversely affected by spillovers from the crisis in Russia, given important linkages between the two economies, but Fitch presently expects that the sovereign's policy buffers, financing options, and long-dated commercial debt profile can help it navigate the shock without major impairment of repayment capacity.

"The headwinds associated with the Ukraine conflict and sanctions on Russia have caused us to revise down our growth projection for 2022 sharply to 1.3% (previously 5.3%), as export growth (particularly to Russia) stalls, and remittances (and hence household consumption) decline. We project growth will return to 4.2% in 2023 ('B' median: 3.6%), reflecting favourable domestic investment prospects and an expected positive contribution of net trade," the agency said.

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