The Economist: how long the process between Armenia and Turkey can last is anybody's guess

PanARMENIAN.Net - This week Armenia and Turkey announced plans for six weeks of "internal political consultations" before establishing diplomatic ties and reopening their border. Coming after several months of Swiss mediation and arm-twisting by America, the declaration makes reconciliation between Turkey and Armenia a real prospect - but not a foregone conclusion, The Economist writes.



Hopes of a new friendship blossomed in September 2008 when Turkey's president, Abdullah Gul, became the first modern Turkish leader to visit Armenia, for a football World Cup qualifier. A full deal seemed imminent in April when the two countries initialed a preliminary agreement, including a plan to reopen the border… Turkey had earlier insisted that it would not reopen the border until Armenia and Azerbaijan had made peace. But in April it seemed to change tack. The main reason was to stop America's Congress adopting a resolution to label the mass slaughter of the Ottoman Armenians in 1915 as genocide. It worked: Barack Obama did not use the term in his annual April 24th statement, the article says.



Yet days later the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, reverted to previous policy by insisting that peace with Armenia would come only if the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was solved. The switch back reflected nationalist reaction at home as well as Azerbaijan's threat to turn towards Russia. Armenia's president, Serzh Sargsyan, retaliated by saying he would not attend a return football match in Turkey on October 14th unless the border was on the verge of being reopened, it says.



This week's announcement is calculated to ensure that Mr Sargsyan comes to the match, maintaining the façade of reconciliation. By careful coincidence the time for internal political consultations ends just before the match. Links of various sorts between the two countries are growing fast and Armenian tourists have been flocking to the Turkish coast. Yet hostility to a deal from opposition parties in both countries is strong.



Armenia's hardline nationalists are furious that the government has agreed both to the present border and to a joint historical commission that might yet call the genocide into doubt. They also accuse Mr Sargsyan of selling out Karabakh. Even if the April 22nd deal is accepted, another hurdle has been raised: both countries' parliaments must agree. To stifle domestic anger (and perhaps embarrass the Turks) Armenia also chose to publish the full text of the agreements in April. They do not mention Nagorno-Karabakh.



Turkey's response has been contradictory. Its foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, insists that he hopes that the border will be reopened by the end of the year. But he also says that peace with Armenia is sustainable only if it makes peace with Azerbaijan. Long-running talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan seem to be going nowhere. Mr Davutoglu's most accurate assertion may be that Turkey and Armenia are at the start of a "long process." How long is anybody's guess, the article says.