Karabakh Conflict: Not Making Jerks Very Important Today

The referendum in 1991 was fully in line with the legal framework of the USSR. As you remember, there was a Law on Withdrawal of a Union republic, which also provided for secession of an autonomous republic or district. That was exactly that referendum, which made the NKR a legal party to the conflict. As you remember, the UN has adopted several resolutions on the Karabakh conflict. These maintain positive nuances, as they not merely condemn the activities of local forces and urge to abandon the seized regions. As a matter of fact the resolutions legalize Nagorno Karabakh as a party to negotiations from the legal point of view.

In my opinion a new referendum on the status of Nagorno Karabakh, proposed at the Rambouillet meeting of the Armenian and Azeri Presidents, is a trap. The returns of the referendum on NKR's independence in 1991 are in fact canceled if it is the case. The move can be considered as a concession by Azerbaijan, however it is not so. The NKR should be the one to set conditions of holding (or not holding) a referendum. A legal formula should be «invented» for displaced persons and refugees - only the NKR Ministry of Internal Affairs can deal with that.

The format of peace talks over the Nagorno Karabakh conflict has changed during the 7-8 years. Both subjective and objective factors were present in this case. In 1998 new President Robert Kocharian came to power and the foreign policy changed naturally. New authorities pursued the policy of bilateral talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which suited the opposing party rather well. The methodology of the conflict changed. Azerbaijan started calling Armenia an aggressor country exclusively. Azeris said it so many times, that they started believing it even themselves.

Each new meeting of the two presidents and mediators only legalized that new format. The OSCE MG accepted those changes with pleasure - there was one problem solved. However, it should not be forgotten that signatures of Armenia, Azerbaijan and the NKR are under the Bishkek agreement on cease-fire. As of the participation of the so-called «Azeri community» of NK, lead by Nizami Bakhmanov, in the talks, it is absurd at all. Nizami Bakhmanov is not a juridical person and is not entitled to represent anyone.

Presently it's very important not to make jerks and harsh statements. Large-scale hostilities may change the format of the talks. A totally different atmosphere will be formed and countries wide of the conflict will settle the Nagorno Karabakh problem. By the way, this is the purpose of Azerbaijan, which says that the OSCE MG is already exhausted and tries to transfer the issue to the UN.

I also want to remind of the right to self-determination of nations within the UN has been transformed in the right of peoples. Any change in the format demands new legal basis. In this case Armenia and NKR can face the worst scenario - something like the Moscow Treaty of 1921 between Soviet Russia and Turkey or the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.